SEE power prices slide on 30 April as solar-midday pressure outweighs evening scarcity

South East Europe’s day-ahead market moved lower on 30 April as traders unwound the previous session’s stronger pricing. While average prices corrected across most hubs, the more telling development was the shape of hourly curves: midday hours weakened under solar-driven pressure, while evening periods continued to carry scarcity value—an outcome that matters for dispatch planning and for how investors think about flexibility assets.

Day-ahead hubs: broad declines with one clear outlier

HUPX settled at €89.82/MWh, down €22.8/MWh day on day. SEEPEX Serbia reached €91.79/MWh, down €15.3/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM was close to Hungary at €90.87/MWh, while Bulgaria fell to €85.92/MWh, Greece to €86.43/MWh, Croatia to €82.56/MWh, Slovenia to €81.87/MWh, and Montenegro to €82.64/MWh.

Albania stood out by rising to €96.33/MWh, while North Macedonia also increased to €85.87/MWh—departures from the regional pattern of declines.

Hourly market structure: midday compression, evening peaks

The trading signal fits a classic “solar midday” pattern versus “evening scarcity” spreads. Across several markets, hourly curves showed weak or even negative midday pricing but strong peaks around H20–H21.

In Hungary’s 7-day view for 30 April, the base level was around €89.8/MWh; however, the minimum dropped to -€28.2/MWh and the maximum rose to €248.5/MWh—highlighting how extreme price dispersion can emerge even when system conditions are not broadly bearish.

Serbia’s profile looked less stressed at the bottom end: SEEPEX base was €91.8/MWh, with a peak at €75.8/MWh and off-peak at €107.8/MWh; the minimum was about €30/MWh and the maximum about €165/MWh. That suggests Serbia avoided some of the deepest negative-price stress seen in Hungary, Slovenia, Austria and Croatia, though it still priced above several neighbouring SEE markets.

Fundamentals: demand rose even as generation fell

System fundamentals did not point to a demand problem that would normally depress prices further on its own. Regional consumption increased to 30,297 MW, up 1,115 MW day on day, while total generation fell by 715 MW to 27,408 MW.

Imports remained structurally important at 1,583 MW but were down 190 MW from the previous day.

The supply mix was led by hydro at 6,638 MW and nuclear at 5,428 MW, followed by coal at 5,190 MW and solar at 4,868 MW; gas contributed 3,224 MW and wind only 1,233 MW (with other generation at 828 MW). The most important short-term change was solar output: it fell by 821 MW day on day while gas rose by 252 MW—reinforcing that thermal flexibility is again needed to cover ramps when solar output drops.

Cross-border flows: net importer status supported evening pricing

The region remained a net importer on average over the period cited in the analysis: SEE recorded -1,583 MW average net import pressure across borders. Hungary contributed -518 MW net import and Serbia -553 MW; Bulgaria was -314 MW and Romania -393 MW; Croatia was -213 MW net imported as well.

Greece was an exception within this picture as a net exporter at +130 MW.

Core imports into Hungary/Slovenia from Austria and Slovakia stayed high at 3,196 MW even as internal spreads shifted: the HU-DE spread narrowed sharply to €17.75/MWh from nearly €30/MWh lower than the previous day level referenced in the report.

Forward markets firm despite weaker spot averages

Even with spot prices pulled lower by intraday renewable effects—and despite softer daily averages—forward markets were firmer in parts of the curve.

Hungarian power forwards rose: Week 19 traded around €102/MWh and Week 20 around €96/MWh; May-26 settled near €96.5/MWh; Cal-26 was higher at about €113/MWh.

Gas strengthened as well: CEGH moved to about €47.03/MWh and Greece gas hovered around €47/MWh.

Coal forwards increased too—May-26 API2 at $110.5/t and Q3-26 at $119.5/t—while EUA softened to about €73.2/t.

Taken together with the spot decline driven by renewable timing rather than demand weakness, the forward curve suggests traders continued pricing fuel-risk and summer reserve risk.

What investors should take from the session

The key takeaway is not simply where daily averages landed but how much value sits in widening “shape” spreads: midday remains vulnerable to solar-driven price collapse while evening hours retain scarcity premiums around H20–H21.

This environment tends to increase the relative value of assets that can respond quickly—batteries and pumped hydro where available—as well as flexible gas generation and hydro dispatch supported by intraday optimisation strategies.

The report also points to relative regional differences: Serbia and Albania showed relative price strength on this day; Hungary remained a reference hub for regional pricing signals; while Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Austria were weaker due to stronger exposure to Central European solar-price compression effects.