Montenegro moves into the EU accession “endgame” as Brussels drafts its treaty

Montenegro is moving into what European officials increasingly describe as the “endgame” of its European Union accession process, with Brussels now formally beginning preparations for the country’s accession treaty and positioning Podgorica as the Western Balkans’ most advanced membership candidate. The shift represents the strongest enlargement momentum Montenegro has seen since it opened negotiations with the EU in 2012.

Brussels turns procedural steps into a membership signal

For the first time in years, the EU is not only discussing Montenegro as a long-term candidate but actively preparing institutional mechanisms associated with actual membership entry. In April, EU ambassadors approved an ad hoc working group tasked with drafting Montenegro’s accession treaty—a procedural step widely interpreted in Brussels as confirmation that Montenegrin membership is now considered a realistic medium-term outcome.

Prime Minister Milojko Spajić’s government has set an ambitious timetable: closing all negotiating chapters by the end of 2026 and reaching full EU membership by 2028. Montenegro has provisionally closed 14 of 33 negotiating chapters, making it the most advanced candidate among Western Balkan states. It has already met critical interim benchmarks for Chapters 23 and 24—covering judiciary, rule of law and security—which Brussels treats as a gateway for completing the final phase of accession negotiations.

EU officials cite “endgame” status while warning reforms remain

The tone inside European institutions has changed noticeably. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said Montenegro is now “in the endgame,” while cautioning that some of the hardest reforms are still ahead. At the same time, the European Commission described Montenegro and the EU as “closer than ever” after more than fourteen years of negotiations.

Geopolitics reshapes enlargement priorities

Behind the political symbolism lies a broader geopolitical calculation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the EU’s enlargement strategy, with Brussels increasingly viewing Western Balkan integration less as a purely bureaucratic neighborhood policy and more as a strategic security imperative aimed at reducing geopolitical instability and limiting Russian and Chinese influence in Southeast Europe.

Montenegro fits that revised approach particularly well. Unlike Serbia, Podgorica aligned fully with EU sanctions against Russia, joined NATO and maintained a consistently pro-Western foreign-policy orientation. As a result, Brussels increasingly treats Montenegro as a politically manageable accession candidate—one capable of demonstrating that EU enlargement policy can still deliver credible outcomes.

Spajić has also framed EU membership less as a financial issue and more as a strategic security and market-access project. Statements highlighted by Politico and regional media indicate Montenegro now views accession primarily through stability, access to the single market and geopolitical positioning rather than infrastructure subsidies alone.

Investor expectations could rise—especially for tourism and capital markets

The economic implications could be significant if membership moves from planning to delivery. EU membership would integrate Montenegro into the bloc’s largest single market while potentially lowering sovereign borrowing costs, improving investor confidence and accelerating capital inflows into sectors such as tourism, infrastructure, renewable energy and logistics.

That expectation is already influencing investment dynamics across parts of Montenegro’s economy. Luxury tourism projects, coastal real estate, marina developments, renewable energy investments and infrastructure financing increasingly appear priced on an assumption that Montenegro may eventually transition from a peripheral Adriatic market into a fully integrated EU jurisdiction.

The banking sector, sovereign debt market and foreign direct investment flows are described as particularly sensitive to this perception. In practical terms, EU accession would likely strengthen institutional credibility, improve regulatory predictability and deepen access to European financing mechanisms—effects that could materially shift long-term growth prospects for an economy heavily dependent on tourism and foreign capital inflows.

The final stretch may be harder than earlier progress

Even so, this final phase may prove to be Montenegro’s most difficult. While technical progress accelerated sharply over the past two years, several remaining chapters involve politically sensitive reforms: judicial independence; anti-corruption enforcement; institutional appointments; public administration reform; and media freedom.

European institutions continue to emphasize that implementation—not just legislative adoption—will determine whether Montenegro reaches the finish line. The stakes are heightened by changes in how the EU approaches enlargement after earlier experiences with democratic backsliding in some member states. Commissioner Kos said future accession treaties may include “stronger safeguards” against deterioration in rule-of-law standards after membership.

Domestic politics and Europe’s own constraints add uncertainty

Domestic political fragmentation remains another risk factor. Montenegro’s coalition landscape is described as highly unstable, balancing pro-European factions with nationalist forces amid identity politics and institutional tensions rooted in its post-Yugoslav political evolution. Fitch Solutions warned that the 2028 target remains “overly ambitious,” citing continuing weaknesses in judicial reform and anti-corruption implementation.

The wider European environment also matters. Although enlargement regained momentum after 2022, member states remain cautious about absorbing new countries amid rising internal political fragmentation, migration pressure, fiscal constraints and geopolitical uncertainty. Enlargement support exists but is increasingly conditional and security-driven rather than idealistic.

Still, Montenegro’s trajectory increasingly appears more advanced than any Western Balkan candidate before it since Croatia joined the EU in 2013. Brussels is effectively testing whether enlargement can produce another credible success story—and for Podgorica, developments over roughly the next eighteen months may determine not only its own European future but also how convincing Europe’s broader Western Balkans strategy remains.