SEE power prices jump in Week 19 as wind falls and gas risk premiums rise

South East Europe’s electricity markets moved sharply higher in Week 19 (04–10 May 2026), reshaping the regional price stack back above €100/MWh in almost all markets except Türkiye. The shift matters for investors and trading desks because it points to a tighter, more volatile early-summer pattern where renewable shortfalls quickly translate into higher marginal pricing.

Prices rise across SEE, with Italy leading

Italy remained the highest-priced SEE market at €131.47/MWh, followed by Romania at €123.34/MWh, Hungary at €122.62/MWh, Croatia at €117.37/MWh, Bulgaria at €111.41/MWh, Serbia at €111.36/MWh and Greece at €106.30/MWh. Serbia’s weekly price increased by 29.25%, but the broader tightening was driven more strongly by Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania—evidence that Central European tightness flowed through into South East Europe.

Türkiye stood out as structurally detached at €16.14/MWh despite a very large percentage increase.

Demand up while renewables weaken

Demand rose 4.34% week-on-week to 15,191 GWh, led by Italy and Türkiye. Italy added 416.3 GWh and Türkiye added 253.6 GWh; Serbia’s demand fell 3.12%, which helped explain why its price increase was less aggressive than in several neighbouring markets.

The key driver behind the price move was the renewable shortfall. Variable RES output fell 19.0% to 2,808.6 GWh, with wind down 32.9%. Türkiye alone lost more than 420 GWh of wind generation, while Croatia and Greece also recorded sharp declines. Solar was comparatively steadier, falling only 6.0%, but even that stability was not enough to prevent higher residual demand for thermal generation across the region.

Thermal dispatch—and gas—moves to the margin

Thermal generation increased markedly, rising 39.2% to 4,835.9 GWh. Gas-fired generation surged 66.6%, while coal and lignite rose 11.1%. The market signal for the week is that SEE prices were not only demand-led; they increasingly reflected gas-dispatch dynamics.

Italy and Türkiye carried much of the increase in thermal output, while Greece and Hungary also leaned more heavily on gas-fired generation. Serbia differed: thermal generation fell and gas-fired output dropped sharply, yet imports rose enough that its overall position still translated into a substantial price increase.

Trade tightens moderately; Serbia’s import balance shifts

Cross-border flows showed moderate tightening rather than a broad collapse in imports or exports overall. Net SEE imports declined 4.6% to 1,036.6 GWh, but Serbia’s import balance more than doubled and Romania’s net imports surged by 216%. Greece and Bulgaria improved their export positions, supported by conventional generation alongside regional spreads.

Gas remains supported by risk even without a strong directional move

Gas pricing was less directional but remained risk-loaded for power markets tied to marginal fuel costs. TTF futures averaged €45.34/MWh, nearly flat week-on-week; however, exposure persisted to Middle East risk linked to geopolitical stress around the Strait of Hormuz, LNG routing uncertainty and slower EU storage injections.

The storage backdrop reinforces forward-price sensitivity: EU gas injections have been running around 20% below last year and inventories sit about 25% below the five-year average—conditions that keep refill risk prominent as a source of support for forward prices.

Implications for trading and hedging into summer

For trading desks, Week 19 confirms that SEE is moving toward a more volatile early-summer regime: weak wind can lift prices above €100/MWh quickly, with gas remaining a key marginal driver when renewables underperform. For generators, the improved price signal is material; for suppliers and industrial buyers, the week underscores the value of hedge coverage ahead of summer cooling demand and as gas-storage risk becomes more visible.