SEE power prices tumble on stronger renewables and rising imports, but evening volatility persists

Power markets across South East Europe moved sharply lower on 14 May, reversing the elevated pricing seen earlier in the week. The pullback matters for traders and generators because it highlights a growing imbalance between midday renewable supply and tighter evening demand—an effect that is increasingly amplified by cross-border flows and fuel-market sentiment.

Day-ahead prices fall across most exchanges

Most regional exchanges corrected downward after the earlier run-up. Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price fell to €120.07/MWh, down €16.5/MWh day-on-day. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €121.10/MWh, also down more than €16/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP dropped to €110.66/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX to €113.13/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN fell sharply to €100.32/MWh.

Greece remained the lowest-priced major market in the region at €94.38/MWh, reflecting stronger solar availability and weaker peak pressure. Serbia’s SEEPEX was among the few exceptions: it rose to €115.27/MWh, signaling continued structural tightness in Serbia’s balancing position relative to neighboring markets.

Imports surge into the wider HU+SEE system

The regional power balance showed a notable increase in imports into the wider HU+SEE system, with net imports rising to approximately 926 MW—nearly 1 GW higher day-on-day. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian and SEE system climbed to 1,140 MW, pointing to renewed west-to-east flow economics as the Hungarian-German spread widened above €25/MWh.

Renewables drive the softening; thermal units stay active

Generation data indicates that the market decline was primarily renewable-driven. Total SEE generation increased by roughly 1.7 GW day-on-day to 28,069 MW. Solar output rose to 5,543 MW and hydro generation climbed to 6,542 MW, while wind generation remained stable above 3.5 GW—supporting midday price compression across the region.

Coal generation also increased to 4,486 MW, suggesting thermal units remained commercially active even as spot prices weakened.

Midday collapses give way to evening price rebounds

The intraday pattern reinforces a more volatile trading profile for SEE electricity markets. Across HUPX, BSP, OPCOM and SEEPEX, prices collapsed during solar-heavy midday hours before rebounding sharply into evening peaks above €180–260/MWh in several markets.

Serbia’s SEEPEX maintained relatively elevated minimum prices compared with neighboring exchanges: daily minimums still stayed above €50/MWh. That level points to limited domestic flexibility and ongoing reliance on balancing support.

Serbia remains central for transit and balancing flows

Cross-border commercial flow data also underscores Serbia’s role as a regional transit and balancing hub. Over the past seven days, average commercial flows show strong imports from Hungary into Serbia—about 922 MW baseload and 724 MW peak on average. The Bulgaria-to-Serbia corridor and Bosnia-to-Serbia flows also remained active.

At the same time, Romania continued exporting strongly toward Hungary, reinforcing a north-south flow structure across Central and Southeast Europe.

Bearish fuel signals add pressure

Fuel markets contributed additional bearish support for power pricing expectations in the region. Austrian CEGH gas for June traded around €48.23/MWh, down on the day, while EUA carbon prices eased toward €75/t. Coal futures softened slightly as well, reducing marginal thermal generation costs.

Balancing investment accelerates as solar expansion raises oversupply risk

The broader structural picture emerging across SEE is increasingly shaped by solar expansion and rising midday oversupply risk. Romania’s PPC Energie pilot project offering households free electricity during selected solar-heavy periods is an early example of how utilities are beginning to adapt demand patterns to renewable generation profiles.

Separately, EVN Macedonia commissioned a 10 MW / 20 MWh battery storage system at Probistip—an indicator of accelerating investment in balancing infrastructure as volatility deepens across regional power markets.

Hydrology supports supply conditions

Hydrology also remains supportive for production levels: Danube flow indicators are elevated relative to long-term averages across the Balkan system, sustaining hydro output and limiting upside pressure on regional spot markets.

For traders and generators alike, these developments point toward a more fragmented pricing structure in which deep solar-driven intraday troughs are followed by increasingly aggressive evening ramps. With renewable growth interacting with interconnection exposure—and with Serbia showing persistent balancing tightness—Serbia remains one of the key volatility anchors alongside Romania and Hungary during 2026.