Russian LNG imports surge in Europe, testing the bloc’s push to cut dependence

Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the European Union have climbed to their highest quarterly level since the start of the war in Ukraine, highlighting how quickly Europe’s energy transition can be undermined by global market conditions. The development matters for investors and policymakers because it shows that even as pipeline flows from Russia have largely stopped, tanker-based LNG purchases can keep structural exposure alive.

Higher Russian LNG volumes despite collapsed pipeline flows

IEEFA research estimates that EU member states imported around 6.9 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG in the first quarter of the year, up 16% year-on-year. The report says the increase continued into April, with imports estimated to be 17% higher than in the same period last year.

Since 2022, pipeline gas flows from Russia to Europe have largely collapsed. However, several EU countries have continued buying Russian LNG that is transported by tanker. France, Spain and Belgium are identified as major buyers and among the key entry points for these cargoes into Europe.

Global supply disruptions intensify LNG competition

The uptick in Russian LNG comes as pressure builds across global energy markets. Supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified competition for alternative gas supplies, particularly within the LNG segment—where availability and pricing can shift rapidly.

EU target remains end-2027 phaseout, but US LNG expansion is costly

The European Union has kept its strategic goal of fully eliminating Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027, even though short-term dependencies persist. In parallel, the bloc has expanded LNG imports from the United States: since 2021, US LNG deliveries to Europe have more than tripled, and first-quarter shipments this year rose by 27% year-on-year.

IEEFA estimates that the United States could become the EU’s largest overall gas supplier by 2026 and may account for roughly 80% of Europe’s LNG imports by 2028. Still, the institute cautions that US LNG remains the most expensive source of gas supply for European consumers.

Diversification strategy falls short under volatility

IEEFA concludes that replacing pipeline gas with LNG has not delivered all expected gains in energy security and diversification. Instead, ongoing geopolitical volatility and increasing reliance on US LNG continue to expose vulnerabilities within Europe’s current energy framework.