Wind slump and demand rebound lift day-ahead power prices across Central and South-East Europe on 18 May

Central and South-East Europe’s day-ahead power market opened the new trading week with a sharp price rebound on 18 May, underscoring how quickly generation mix shifts can reprice risk in the region. Lower wind generation, tighter regional import balances and a stronger weekday demand recovery after the weekend combined to lift prices across multiple exchanges, while Serbia remained notably decoupled.

Prices converge around €143/MWh as wind output falls

Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price surged to €143.22/MWh, up more than €55/MWh day-on-day. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €143.19/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at €143.24/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP at €143.18/MWh—signals of renewed convergence across Central and South-East Europe.

Serbia’s SEEPEX, by contrast, remained structurally decoupled at €82.27/MWh. Albania and Montenegro also traded materially below core regional hubs at €61.67/MWh and €84.19/MWh respectively.

Evening peak scarcity shows up in hourly maxima

The dominant driver was a collapse in regional wind output. Forecast wind generation across the SEE system fell by approximately 1,029 MW day-on-day to around 1,651 MW. Solar partially offset the loss with an increase of nearly 978 MW.

With the generation balance shifting back toward thermal units and imported marginal pricing during evening peak hours, price pressure concentrated late in the day—particularly around hour 21, when most regional exchanges recorded daily maxima above €250/MWh.

Demand normalizes after the weekend; imports tighten

Consumption rebounded strongly at the same time. Total SEE plus Hungary forecast demand rose to roughly 27.9 GW, up more than 1.7 GW day-on-day, alongside higher temperatures across the region.

This demand normalization coincided with a sharp contraction in net regional imports: they fell to only -80 MW versus over 1.5 GW one day earlier. The reduction of cheaper core European inflows tightened local pricing structures.

Hydro strength supports fundamentals even as volatility rises

Despite the wind-led spike in spot prices, hydro conditions remain structurally supportive for the region. Total hydro generation stayed elevated at roughly 6.3 GW—about 25% of the overall generation mix—and Danube flows were significantly above long-term averages near 6,848 m³/s. That backdrop helps explain exceptionally strong Q1 financial results being reported by hydro-dominated utilities such as Romania’s Hidroelectrica and Montenegro’s EPCG.

Q1 results highlight monetization power of hydro-heavy portfolios

Romania is emerging as one of the strongest regional generators structurally: Q1 2026 electricity production increased by 8.8%, with hydropower up 38.3% year-on-year and wind output rising by 18%. Hidroelectrica’s net profit more than doubled to approximately €263 million, supported by elevated wholesale market monetization and stronger balancing revenues.

Montenegro’s EPCG reported a profitability improvement as well, with Q1 net profit reaching €36.5 million compared with €10.2 million a year earlier—supported by hydrology and increased thermal production at Pljevlja.

The article notes that these results are increasingly relevant from a CBAM-linked trade perspective: hydro-heavy portfolios strengthen the commercial attractiveness of low-carbon regional electricity exports into EU-linked industrial supply chains.

Futures point to summer firmness; carbon prices stabilize

The futures curve suggests traders still expect structurally elevated power pricing into summer despite renewable expansion now underway. Hungarian Week 21 baseload forwards traded around €118.5/MWh, while June 2026 contracts remained above €113/MWh.

EUA carbon prices stabilized around €75.6/tCO₂, continuing to underpin coal and gas marginal pricing economics across the SEE region.

Gas corridor talks reinforce transit-hub expectations

Gas markets remain another key structural variable for pricing dynamics in the region. CEGH gas prices traded around €50.67/MWh, while strategic positioning around the Vertical Gas Corridor continues accelerating.

Greece, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria formally advanced discussions on expanding the corridor deeper into the Western Balkans—reinforcing South-East Europe’s role as a future gas and electricity transit hub.

Divergence between coupled EU markets and partially isolated SEE persists

A central structural development highlighted by traders is growing divergence between fully coupled EU exchanges and still partially isolated SEE markets. Serbia’s SEEPEX staying roughly €60/MWh below HUPX on the same delivery day again points to how local balancing conditions, generation mix and cross-border congestion continue fragmenting regional pricing dynamics.

For traders, industrial buyers and future battery-storage operators, those spreads increasingly function both as arbitrage opportunities and as early signals of congestion risk.

Batteries gain appeal as evening ramps create high-value spreads

The economics for battery storage are improving under exactly these volatility conditions described on 18 May—particularly where solar output weakens while wind remains fragile into evening hours (hour windows around 20–22). Albania’s planned hybrid project—160 MW solar plus 60 MW battery—backed by potential EBRD financing is cited as an example of investors repositioning toward flexible capacity rather than standalone renewables.

Thermal dependence remains embedded despite renewable strength

Even with strong hydro and solar conditions that day, thermal generation still sat materially within regional balancing structures: coal and gas represented approximately 28% of total SEE plus Hungary generation on 18 May.

The implications extend beyond decarbonization alone following Greece’s closure of the 1,595 MW Agios Dimitrios lignite plant: it increases regional dependence on gas, interconnections and flexible balancing capacity.

A more volatile phase is taking shape for intraday pricing

Taken together, the market picture suggests SEE electricity markets are entering a structurally more volatile phase where hydrology strength, solar cannibalization effects near midday-to-evening transitions, evening peak scarcity dynamics, cross-border congestion constraints and CBAM-linked low-carbon electricity demand will all shape prices simultaneously. In this environment, daily averages become less informative than hourly volatility patterns—especially for traders, BESS operators and industrial consumers exposed to intraday balancing costs.