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SEE power prices rebound as demand and net imports rise, solar recovers and wind weakens
Southeast European electricity markets staged a broad rebound on 19 May 2026, with price recovery visible across the Balkans and Hungary after the previous session’s softer weekend dynamics. The turnaround mattered for traders because it combined stronger physical balancing needs—regional consumption rose sharply and net imports into the SEE system topped 835 MW—with a renewed shift in renewable output that continued to shape intraday volatility.
Spot price recovery led by lower-priced Balkan markets
The most pronounced daily moves were recorded in the lower-priced Balkan markets. Serbian SEEPEX prices jumped by almost 41% day-on-day to EUR 123.23/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN market rose 24.6% to EUR 108.84/MWh. North Macedonia’s MEMO climbed 26.3% to EUR 113.22/MWh, and Albania’s ALPEX recovered to EUR 77.29/MWh, remaining the lowest-priced market in the region.
Hungary’s HUPX stayed the regional pricing anchor at EUR 141.79/MWh, only marginally lower than the previous day. Romanian OPCOM closed at EUR 142.69/MWh, effectively maintaining full correlation with Hungarian pricing. Slovenia’s BSP and Croatia’s CROPEX remained tightly coupled with Central European fundamentals near EUR 140/MWh, underscoring continued integration between SEE and core continental markets.
Demand surge and higher imports underpin the move
The underlying driver of the rebound was a major increase in system demand. Regional consumption climbed to 28,647 MW—up by almost 1,500 MW from the previous day—while imports into the SEE-Hungary balancing area surged by more than 1 GW day-on-day.
The import structure remains strategically important: core inflows from Austria and Slovakia toward Hungary and Southeast Europe rose to more than 1,065 MW. That highlights ongoing structural dependence of SEE markets on Central European balancing capacity during periods when renewable generation is volatile.
Renewables diverged: solar rebounded while wind collapsed
Renewable generation dynamics shifted materially alongside the demand picture. Solar production recovered strongly to 5,710 MW, increasing by almost 945 MW day-on-day, partially offsetting a sharp collapse in wind generation, which fell by more than 700 MW to 2,033 MW.
This divergence continues to define spring volatility across SEE. Solar output is increasingly dominant during midday hours, suppressing intraday pricing, while weak evening wind conditions are sustaining steep evening ramp pricing between 19:00–22:00 CET. Hourly curves across HUPX, BSP, OPCOM and HENEX showed strong evening price spikes above EUR 230–260/MWh during peak balancing hours.
Hydro strengthened; conventional generation rose together
Hydro production also improved materially, reaching 7,366 MW supported by elevated Danube flows near 6,839 mÂł/s. That strengthened hydro flexibility across Romania and the wider Danube-connected system.
At the same time, coal and gas generation increased simultaneously—reflecting a growing need for conventional flexibility despite rising renewable penetration. Coal generation reached 4,601 MW while gas-fired generation rose to 3,510 MW.
Forward prices softened modestly even as spot conditions improved
Despite stronger spot performance, forward markets weakened modestly. Hungarian week-ahead baseload contracts declined toward EUR 102/MWh, while June-2026 Hungarian baseload forwards eased toward EUR 112/MWh. The pricing suggests traders continue to look for stronger solar availability alongside softer continental gas fundamentals later in the quarter.
Gas markets were relatively stable: Austrian CEGH front-month contracts were near EUR 51.92/MWh. EU carbon allowances held above EUR 75/tCOâ‚‚, keeping structural pressure on coal-fired marginal economics across SEE markets.
Regional fragmentation persists in flows and Southern Balkan pricing
The widening divergence between Southern Balkan pricing and Central Europe remained notable. Greece’s HENEX market surged almost 30% day-on-day to EUR 129.48/MWh but still traded at a discount to Hungary due to stronger domestic renewable output and improving interconnection balances.
Commercial flow data also pointed to an increasingly fragmented regional balancing structure. Romania remained a major exporter toward Hungary at an average of more than 1,200 MW over the last seven days, while Greece continued exporting strongly toward Turkey. Bosnia and Herzegovina maintained exports toward both Serbia and Montenegro—reinforcing how hydro and lignite flexibility continue to matter within parts of the western Balkan system.
