Southeast Europe power prices rebound on weaker solar, higher imports and widening evening scarcity

Electricity trading in Southeast Europe reversed course sharply for delivery on 22 May 2026, with day-ahead prices rising across most regional hubs after a softer, solar-driven period earlier in the week. The rebound reflects a fast deterioration in renewable generation conditions—an outcome that tightened intraday balance, increased thermal dispatch and cross-border imports, and pushed scarcity premiums higher into the evening.

Spot price rebound across regional hubs

Hungary’s HUPX closed at €116.02/MWh, up 9.3% day-on-day and re-establishing itself as the highest-priced major market in the region. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €111.89/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €110.08/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP at €109.28/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX reached €103.82/MWh.

Greece’s HENEX remained structurally lower at €92.38/MWh, supported by stronger domestic renewable balancing and lower marginal thermal pressure. Serbia’s SEEPEX traded significantly discounted at €68.60/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN fell further to €59.73/MWh—the lowest regional benchmark.

Renewables weakness tightens balance and raises imports

The main driver behind the regional price move was a sharp deterioration in renewable generation. Total SEE solar output dropped by 1,012 MW day-on-day to 5,302 MW, while wind generation fell by another 575 MW to 3,662 MW. Combined renewable losses exceeded 1.5 GW, materially tightening intraday balance and increasing reliance on thermal generation and cross-border imports.

At the same time, consumption strengthened: regional demand rose by 559 MW to 28,246 MW. Net imports surged by 1,570 MW day-on-day to 1,193 MW, with core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian-SEE corridor increasing by 976 MW—evidence of renewed dependence on north-to-south power flows.

Evening scarcity premiums widen; Hungary-Germany spread turns positive

A key signal for market tightness came from the widening Hungary-Germany spread, which jumped to €9.67/MWh after trading in negative territory earlier in the week. The move points to tighter Central European fundamentals and improved import economics into Southeast Europe as solar output weakened after sunset.

Intraday price curves also showed greater volatility around evening hours across multiple markets. Hungary recorded a daily maximum price of €226.8/MWh; Romania €207.1/MWh; Croatia €192.9/MWh; and Greece €166.4/MWh—most peaking during hours 21–22 when solar collapsed while demand remained elevated.

By contrast, midday minimum prices again approached zero in several markets during solar-heavy periods; Slovenia and Greece recorded near-zero or negative intraday pricing during those hours.

Dispatch shifts toward gas; storage economics strengthen

The generation mix moved toward flexibility assets as renewables underperformed. Gas-fired output increased by 471 MW to 3,109 MW, indicating that gas units became marginal balancing resources during evening hours. Coal generation stayed elevated at 4,694 MW, while hydro production remained relatively stable at 6,824 MW but was not enough to offset renewable declines. Nuclear output was flat near 3,076 MW.

This growing divergence between near-zero midday pricing during solar output and scarcity-driven evening peaks is strengthening the economic case for battery energy storage systems across Southeast Europe markets—particularly where evening balancing volatility remains structurally elevated such as Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia.

Why Serbia remains discounted—and what it implies for investment

Serbia continued to trade substantially below neighboring EU markets: SEEPEX averaged only €68.60/MWh versus nearly €47/MWh below HUPX (Hungary). The discount is attributed to Serbia’s more insulated pricing structure alongside significant domestic coal generation exposure and weaker integration into broader EU balancing dynamics.

At the same time, the gap increasingly highlights long-term investment pressure tied to Serbian generation modernization and flexibility assets as well as CBAM-linked electricity market evolution.

Cross-border flows confirm Hungary’s transit role

Cross-border commercial patterns showed ongoing export orientation from Romania toward Hungary and Serbia, while Greece remained a significant importing market. Romania exported about 752 MW toward Hungary on average; Hungary exported around 472 MW toward Croatia and about 857 MW toward Austria under base-load conditions.

The flows reinforce Hungary’s position as the primary balancing and transit hub between Central Europe and Southeast Europe.

Forward markets steady despite spot volatility

Forward prices were comparatively stable even after the spot rally—suggesting traders view current volatility primarily as weather- and renewable-driven rather than fundamentally structural changes to supply-demand balances. Hungarian week-ahead contracts traded near €96.50/MWh; June baseload forward prices were around €103.50/MWh.

EUA carbon allowances rose modestly to about €74.93/t, while Austrian CEGH gas eased slightly to around €50.88/MWh.

Hydrology offers partial support; infrastructure transformation continues

Hydrological conditions provided some support for hydro systems: Danube flow levels stayed near 6,757 m³/s above historical averages across Romania and the wider Balkan system. Still, hydro alone was not sufficient to offset increasingly volatile solar and wind patterns during rapid weather transitions.

The broader regional backdrop continues shifting toward deeper infrastructure development and system transformation through renewables build-out, gas flexibility expansion and regulatory pressure on aging assets:

Romania advanced renewable investment momentum via Hidroelectrica’s €188.5 million refurbishment agreement for the 335 MW Raul Mare Retezat hydropower plant alongside Rezolv Energy efforts to secure EBRD backing for a new 315 MW wind project in Constanta county.

In Serbia, Srbijagas expanded its state-backed gasification program in Leskovac with project value raised to €86.8 million excluding VAT—reinforcing gas infrastructure’s role in balancing and industrial decarbonization frameworks.

Bulgaria also highlighted operational pressure on older lignite capacity after shutting down one unit at coal-fired TPP Bobov Dol due to environmental violations—an action expected to tighten reserve margins further over coming years during periods of renewable underperformance.

A transition pattern resembling Western Europe

Taken together, today’s price behavior mirrors a transition phase already visible in parts of Western European power systems: compressed midday pricing driven by renewables alongside sharp evening balancing spikes; greater reliance on flexible gas capacity; stronger north-south interconnection flows; and rising value for storage or fast-response flexibility assets.

Across Southeast Europe markets, these dynamics are gradually reshaping investment economics for renewables expansion plans as well as storage deployment strategies, gas balancing infrastructure needs and cross-border trading approaches—especially when weather-driven swings rapidly tighten system margins into peak evening hours.