Mohamed Alabbar’s Dubai comparison spotlights Montenegro’s tourism execution gap

Mohamed Alabbar’s comparison of Montenegro and Dubai has reignited debate about how the Adriatic state is positioning its tourism economy. In his view, Montenegro’s coastline advantage has not translated into visitor volumes at anything like global benchmarks, turning what he frames as a missed economic opportunity into a question of delivery—especially as the country seeks a new wave of foreign capital.

Coastline capacity versus visitor numbers

Alabbar argues that Montenegro’s coastline remains structurally underutilised despite hosting high-value locations such as Velika Plaža, Budva Riviera, Bay of Kotor and Luštica. He points to sites like Velika Plaža—over 12 km of largely undeveloped beachfront—as an example of rare “greenfield coastal inventory” in Europe.

Yet tourism volumes remain relatively modest. Montenegro has historically attracted around 2 million visitors annually, which is strong relative to its population but far below major global destinations and well under what its coastline capacity implies.

A scaling problem tied to infrastructure and planning

For Alabbar, the gap is not fundamentally about demand. Instead, his argument reflects an investor perspective that Montenegro has not fully industrialised its tourism model. Infrastructure constraints—particularly airports, highways and large-scale resort capacity—are cited as limiting throughput.

He also points to fragmented planning and regulatory uncertainty as factors that slow project delivery. Alabbar himself has highlighted the need for new airport infrastructure and improved connectivity as prerequisites for scaling visitor numbers.

Gulf-backed deals raise both hopes and concerns

The remarks arrive as Montenegro actively positions itself for large-scale foreign investment, particularly from Gulf capital. Alabbar—founder of Emaar Properties and Eagle Hills—has been among the most visible proponents of a more aggressive development approach aimed at transforming parts of the Adriatic coastline into a higher-density, higher-value tourism platform.

The logic behind recent UAE–Montenegro agreements is designed to accelerate execution through direct negotiations and long-term land leases, potentially compressing timelines compared with traditional European processes. The agreements are described as potentially valued in the tens of billions of euros.

But the same model has drawn scrutiny. Critics argue that fast-tracked frameworks can bypass standard procurement and planning safeguards, potentially distorting competition and undermining environmental protections. Concerns have been especially acute around projects targeting ecologically sensitive areas such as Velika Plaža, described as home to hundreds of plant and animal species and among the last large undeveloped coastal zones in the Adriatic.

Two competing development philosophies

The debate often turns on what is implicitly referred to as a “Dubai model”: high-density, master-planned coastal developments driven by large investors with an emphasis on maximising visitor numbers and asset values. The alternative is a more incremental approach aligned with EU expectations—prioritising sustainability, spatial planning discipline and preserving natural assets as long-term economic value drivers.

Montenegro’s current tourism landscape already reflects elements of both approaches. Coastal hubs such as Tivat have evolved into luxury micro-markets anchored by developments like Porto Montenegro, attracting ultra-high-net-worth visitors and commanding nightly rates estimated at €300–800. Meanwhile, destinations such as Kotor operate under strict heritage constraints that prioritise pricing power over volume growth.

What remains underdeveloped is the middle layer: large-scale integrated resort capacity capable of materially increasing total visitor numbers while maintaining price segmentation—precisely the segment Gulf investors are targeting because it can still be built at scale in Europe’s coastal markets.

The stakes for Montenegro’s economy

The potential upside is significant because tourism is described as a cornerstone of Montenegro’s economy, contributing a significant share of GDP and foreign exchange inflows. Expanding visitor volumes—even by a factor of two to three—would have knock-on effects for the current account balance, employment, real estate valuations and fiscal revenues.

Conversely, if Montenegro cannot unlock that capacity while managing environmental risks and regulatory alignment, high-value natural assets may remain under-monetised.

Execution over geography

Alabbar’s Dubai comparison ultimately argues that Montenegro is not constrained by natural resources but by how those resources are deployed. Dubai’s coastline is described as fully financialised through integration with aviation hubs, global branding and large-scale real estate development; Montenegro still operates a more fragmented model where infrastructure, planning and investment frameworks have not yet converged into a unified growth strategy.

The next phase will determine whether Montenegro can absorb large-scale capital while maintaining alignment with EU standards, protecting environmental assets and ensuring long-term value is not traded away for short-term growth.