Europe power prices climb in mid-April as CO₂ costs rise and renewables lag, before a forecasted pullback

In the third week of April, electricity prices across most major European markets surged to their highest daily levels early in the period before easing gradually. Even with that mid-week decline, weekly average prices still finished higher than the prior week—highlighting how quickly marginal fuel and carbon costs can transmit into power benchmarks across Europe.

Weekly averages rise, led by sharp moves in France

Weekly averages exceeded €95/MWh in most European markets during the week of April 13. Spain, Portugal and France were exceptions, staying below that level at €50.38/MWh, €50.73/MWh and €70.93/MWh respectively. Italy recorded the highest weekly average at €123.19/MWh, while other markets ranged from €97.42/MWh in the Nordic region to €109.09/MWh in Germany.

Looking at week-on-week changes, Italy saw the smallest increase at 2.7%, while France posted the largest jump at 109%. In the remaining analyzed markets covered by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price growth ranged from 21% in Great Britain to 67% in the Nordic market.

Daily extremes: Spain and Portugal hit lows; Italy posts a late-February low

Daily pricing showed a wide spread across countries. Spain registered the lowest price among the analyzed markets for the week at €23.80/MWh on April 13, with Portugal close behind at €23.88/MWh on the same day. At the other end of the range, Italy reached its lowest daily price since late February on April 18, at €89.39/MWh.

Most markets also saw days above €100/MWh during at least one session of the week, with peaks concentrated near the start of the period. On April 14, Italy recorded the highest daily average of the week at €150.62/MWh; meanwhile, the Nordic market’s top level was €111.14/MWh on that date—its highest since late February.

What pushed prices higher—and what could reverse them

AleaSoft said upward pressure during April 13 was driven by rising CO₂ allowance prices alongside lower wind generation and increased electricity demand across most markets. It also pointed to reduced solar output in Germany and Italy as an additional contributor to higher price levels.

For the fourth week of April, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting expects prices to fall as demand eases and wind and solar generation rise across most markets. However, it cautioned that natural gas price movements are expected to remain a key determinant of short-term dynamics in European electricity trading.

For investors and market participants, the combination of carbon-cost sensitivity and renewable availability remains central: when wind output drops or demand strengthens while CO₂ rises, power benchmarks can reprice quickly—even if subsequent generation improves later in the month.