SEE power markets firm in March as gas rebound lifts prices; liquidity remains uneven

South-East European day-ahead power markets strengthened in March, with clearing prices rising across most exchanges as a sharp rebound in gas prices tightened the marginal cost base. The price move was broad, but liquidity told a more fragmented story: volumes shifted unevenly from one market to another, leaving smaller systems more exposed to volatility.

Prices rise across core SEE hubs after softer February

Regional benchmarks moved upward following a weaker February. Average day-ahead prices clustered in the €95–€120/MWh range across core SEE hubs. Italy remained the region’s highest-priced market at €143.36/MWh, reinforcing its role as a price anchor. Hungary followed at €117.36/MWh, while Croatia cleared at €110.12/MWh.

Romania and Bulgaria cleared at €105.15/MWh and €103.51/MWh, respectively. Greece and Serbia converged near €95/MWh. Türkiye stood out as an outlier: prices fell to €31.77/MWh, reflecting weaker demand and different market fundamentals.

Gas costs drive the marginal bid; hydro weakness tightens supply

The upward correction in clearing prices was largely linked to higher gas input costs. TTF futures moved above €50/MWh, feeding directly into thermal generation bids and lifting the marginal cost of electricity.

Supply conditions also mattered. Lower hydro output across much of the region and uneven renewable generation tightened availability, increasing reliance on gas-fired units and heightening price sensitivity when gas becomes more expensive.

Intraday volatility increases as solar dips give way to evening peaks

Daily and hourly price formation pointed to growing intraday volatility. Midday pricing was typically compressed by solar output, while evening peaks widened significantly—particularly in tighter systems such as Serbia, where balancing needs pushed prices higher during ramping hours.

Liquidity remains concentrated; volume changes diverge by country

Trading activity remained highly concentrated in a small number of exchanges. Italy led regional trading with approximately 24.2 TWh traded during the month, far ahead of other markets. Greece followed with around 4.37 TWh, while Bulgaria and Hungary each recorded volumes close to 2.8 TWh. Romania traded roughly 1.35 TWh, Croatia 0.75 TWh, and Serbia remained structurally illiquid at just 0.46 TWh.

Month-on-month volume movements diverged further:

• Greece: +7.4% increase in traded electricity.

• Italy: +2.6% rise.

• Bulgaria: +5.6% increase.

• Hungary: -7.8% decline.

• Romania: -10.0% decline.

• Croatia: +2.3% increase.

(Serbia’s volumes increased by +12.3% month-on-month, but absolute levels remained low.) The pattern suggests that while some markets saw improved participation or stable demand, others experienced softer liquidity or reduced trading opportunities.

A hub-and-spoke structure amplifies sensitivity for low-liquidity systems

The daily volume profile reinforced a hub-and-spoke structure across the region. Italy consistently traded between 700–900 GWh/day. Greece averaged 120–150 GWh/day, while Bulgaria and Hungary ranged between 80–120 GWh/day. Serbia’s daily traded volumes stayed below <20 GWh/day, underlining its exposure to sharper price movements due to limited liquidity on SEEPEX.

No simple link between higher volumes and steadier prices

The relationship between clearing prices and volumes was non-linear. High-liquidity markets such as Italy maintained elevated price levels tied to their dependence on gas-fired generation, while smaller markets with lower liquidity—especially Serbia—showed stronger price volatility even with lower traded volumes.

Bulgaria and Romania, which have more diversified generation mixes, recorded more moderate price increases alongside relatively stable liquidity—highlighting how both system composition and trading depth shape outcomes when fuel costs move.

March confirms SEE power remains tightly coupled to gas—and vulnerable to short-term swings

Taken together, March trading showed that South-East Europe’s day-ahead market is still structurally linked to gas price movements, with hydro variability and renewable output driving short-term divergences across hubs. Liquidity continues to concentrate in a limited set of exchanges, while smaller markets display heightened sensitivity to supply-demand imbalances—an environment that leaves volatility elevated across the region.