SEE day-ahead power prices surge above €100/MWh as demand rises and imports tighten

Day-ahead electricity markets across South-East Europe started the week on a decisive upward turn on 4 May, with prices rebounding above €100/MWh across most trading hubs. The repricing underscores how quickly the region’s power balance can shift when demand strengthens while import availability and thermal supply fail to keep pace—an environment that investors are likely to find increasingly sensitive to weather, flows and fuel costs.

Prices jump across SEE hubs

Hungary’s HUPX led the move, rising to €114.4/MWh (+€41.1 day-on-day). Romania’s OPCOM followed at €110.9/MWh (+€38.5), while Croatia’s CROPEX cleared at €110.4/MWh (+€39.3). Serbia’s SEEPEX reached €103.0/MWh (+€24.0), and Bulgaria’s IBEX and Greece’s HENEX settled at €102.2/MWh (+€30.5) and €98.9/MWh (+€30.7), respectively.

Even markets that typically price lower—such as Albania and North Macedonia—moved higher, though they remained below the core SEE cluster.

A regional tightening event, not isolated pricing

The synchronized nature of the price correction points to system-wide fundamentals rather than localised disruptions. All major interconnected markets responded simultaneously, reflecting a broader tightening in supply-demand conditions.

Demand provided the immediate trigger: total system consumption increased to 28,127 MW, up 2,767 MW day-on-day, linked to both a post-weekend industrial rebound and gradually rising temperatures across the region. Generation rose only marginally to 24,837 MW—effectively flat—creating a gap that would normally be covered by imports or higher-cost marginal units.

Imports contract as Hungary trades above Germany

Instead of offsetting the imbalance, import dynamics moved against it. Net imports fell sharply toward near-balanced conditions at -315 MW, compared with a positive import position the previous day. Core inflows from Central Europe also declined significantly, with AT/SK to HU/SEE flows dropping by several hundred megawatts.

This contraction coincided with a widening price spread between Hungary and Germany: the HU-DE spread reached -€16.7/MWh, indicating Hungarian prices were trading above the German benchmark and reducing the economic incentive for west-to-east flows.

The decoupling from Central European price formation matters because when SEE markets lose access to competitively priced imports, local fundamentals dominate pricing—often translating into sharp upward corrections as systems move up their merit order during tight periods.

Supply mix shifts: renewables up, coal down

On the generation side, renewables improved but were not enough to offset declines in conventional baseload capacity. Solar output increased to 4,695 MW (+221 MW) and wind rose to 1,715 MW (+142 MW), supported by stable weather conditions.

Coal generation fell by 566 MW to 3,669 MW, removing mid-merit capacity from the system. Hydropower output softened slightly and gas-fired generation increased only marginally to 2,257 MW, suggesting limited flexibility or economic constraints in ramping thermal capacity. Nuclear generation remained stable at approximately 5.4 GW, continuing to provide baseload support without being able to respond dynamically to short-term demand spikes.

Over a 3 GW imbalance—and volatility shows up in intraday peaks

Overall, the tightening supply-demand balance exceeded 3 GW—sufficient to trigger rapid price escalation across interconnected markets as marginal pricing shifts toward higher-cost units or scarcity pricing during peak hours.

Intraday profiles confirm this pattern: hourly profiles show strong evening peaks across multiple exchanges, with maximum prices consistently occurring around hour 21. Midday prices were comparatively suppressed due to solar generation; however, they did not reach the depth seen in earlier sessions with more extreme negative pricing episodes.

The broader volatility picture remains intact from recent days as well: minimum prices had dropped as low as -€500/MWh in certain markets during high renewable output periods. The coexistence of extreme negative prints earlier with triple-digit peaks on this day highlights persistent structural imbalance in SEE power markets.

Cross-border flows and fuel costs add pressure

Cross-border flow data reinforces regional stress dynamics. Romania and Bulgaria continued acting as exporters toward Hungary, Serbia and Greece, but overall volumes were insufficient to compensate for reduced inflows from Central Europe—leaving parts of the region behaving like a semi-isolated pricing zone during tight conditions.

Fuel and carbon markets also contributed upward pressure on costs: Austrian gas hub prices rose to around €19/MWh on the day increase noted in the report, while EU carbon allowances remained broadly stable in the €70–80/t range. Higher gas prices can directly affect marginal generation costs when gas plants are needed to balance variability from renewables.

Regime shift likely keeps volatility elevated

Taken together, developments on 4 May reflect a transition away from oversupplied, renewable-driven conditions seen earlier in spring toward a more balanced—but highly sensitive—regime where demand swings, cross-border flows and thermal availability jointly determine price formation.

In the short term, direction depends heavily on import availability from Central Europe as well as changes in wind and solar output alongside temperature-driven demand patterns; with interconnector constraints already evident through reduced flows earlier in the session context described by the report, further tightening could sustain elevated prices.

At a structural level for 2026 highlighted by the data: renewable penetration is increasing intraday volatility; coal capacity erosion is reducing flexibility and raising dependence on gas and imports; and grid constraints along with limited interconnection capacity are amplifying regional price separation from core European markets. Under these conditions, SEE power markets are expected to remain prone to abrupt price swings where liquidity and flexibility become increasingly valuable for both trading strategies and asset operations.