SEE power prices slide in Week 17 as renewables surge, but firmer gas limits downside

South-East European power markets moved sharply lower in Week 17 (20–26 April), mirroring a broader European correction driven by strong renewable generation and weaker demand. While the immediate impact was a clear drop in day-ahead prices across the region, firmer gas trading—supported by renewed geopolitical uncertainty—appears to have capped how far forward power pricing could fall.

Day-ahead prices retreat, with Croatia and Hungary hit hardest

Across SEE, day-ahead prices recorded double-digit declines. The steepest weekly corrections were seen in Croatia and Hungary, where weekly averages fell to €72.92/MWh (-30.3%) and €80.31/MWh (-27.3%), respectively. Romania and Bulgaria followed with prices easing to €86.99/MWh (-17.5%) and €81.82/MWh (-16.8%). Greece dropped to €78.61/MWh (-16.2%), while Serbia saw a more moderate decline to €80.41/MWh (-11.6%), reflecting comparatively tighter system conditions.

Italy remained the regional premium market at €109.12/MWh, even though its week-on-week trend softened.

Correction reflects Europe’s oversupply picture, but SEE remains distinct

The regional downturn tracked developments in core European markets where prices fell more aggressively—led by Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia with declines exceeding 40%. France stood out for an extreme move down to €7.62/MWh (-89.3%), signaling severe oversupply conditions linked to high nuclear and renewable output.

Meanwhile, the Iberian markets stayed broadly stable around €50/MWh, underscoring continued decoupling within Europe.

Early signs of rebound in Week 18 highlight persistent volatility

Despite the weekly decline, early indications for Week 18 suggested renewed upward pressure. Day-ahead prices on April 28 rebounded across SEE, ranging from €97.01/MWh in Greece to €112.66/MWh in Hungary—an indication that downside may not be stable even after a sharp correction.

Demand softens overall as wind falls sharply

On the demand side, electricity consumption across SEE declined by -2.6% week-on-week, reversing the prior week’s growth. Italy and Türkiye led the downturn with contractions of -4.1% and -3.9%, respectively, while Hungary also posted a -4.1% decline.

Romania and Greece were exceptions, recording increases of +6.5% and +3.2%, respectively—suggesting localized demand recovery tied to weather patterns and short-term economic activity.

Supply dynamics were dominated by weaker wind generation: total variable renewable output across SEE fell by -11.3%, driven by a -29.3% collapse in wind production, partially offset by solar output rising +8.8%. The largest wind reductions were recorded in Türkiye (-40.4%), Croatia (-22.9%) and Greece (-16.3%), reinforcing how weather-driven swings can quickly reshape system balance.

Hydropower steadier overall; thermal generation shifts with fuel economics

Hydropower output was broadly stable at -1.5%, though national trends diverged sharply: Croatia increased by +145.2%, while Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania fell by -23.4%, -27.4% and -9.8%, respectively.

Thermal generation decreased by -6.4%, led by a -14.3% drop in gas-fired output; coal generation rose modestly by +3.3%. The pattern points to continued fuel switching influenced by gas price dynamics.

Cross-border flows rise as import positions expand

Cross-border flows expanded during the week, with SEE’s net import position rising by +39.7%. Greece and Romania shifted from net export to net import positions, while Serbia moved deeper into import territory as well.

Italy remained the dominant net importer, Croatia strengthened its export position, and Hungary’s surplus narrowed.

Liquidity remains concentrated; Serbia’s trading is thin

Market liquidity was highly concentrated geographically and structurally concentrated within the region’s trading hubs rather than evenly distributed across borders.

Weekly traded volumes reached 20,340 GWh in Italy—far ahead of other markets—followed by 3,560 GWh in Greece, 2,450 GWh in Bulgaria and 2,260 GWh in Hungary. Serbia continued to show limited liquidity with just 110 GWh traded over the week.

Gas firms on geopolitical risk; LNG disruptions delay market loosening

In gas markets, TTF front-month futures extended gains early before stabilizing later in the week. Prices rose from €40.29/MWh to a peak of €44.86/MWh, with a weekly average of €43.03/MWh (+1.3%). By April 27 they eased slightly to €44.65/MWh, suggesting consolidation around the mid-€40/MWh range.

The upward pressure was attributed to renewed geopolitical uncertainty tied to stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—conditions that have already altered LNG flows into global balances.

An estimate cited pointed to a cumulative loss of around 120 bcm of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030 (about 15% of expected global supply growth). That would delay anticipated market loosening by up to two years and reinforce gas’s role as a key price-setting component for European power markets.

LNG inflows show mixed regional utilization

LNG flows into Europe showed mixed signals across entry points within SEE-linked systems: Greece recorded a +22% increase in LNG inflows to 663.83 GWh, while Italy maintained its position as the dominant entry point with 4,334.7 GWh.

Croatia contrasted sharply with a -60.8% decline in inflows, highlighting volatility in how regional LNG infrastructure is utilized from one period to the next.

A correction is likely—but structural support keeps volatility elevated

Taken together—weak renewable output after wind falls sharply into Week 17’s supply picture, shifting cross-border flows that change regional balancing needs, and firmer gas pricing driven by geopolitical risk—the data suggests short-term price corrections remain possible even after this week’s slide.

At the same time, the broader market structure continues to support elevated price levels and high volatility across South-East European power markets as investors weigh weather-driven renewable swings against gas-linked downside protection for forward curves.