SEE power prices rise on weaker renewables, tighter balances and heavier evening ramping

South-East European electricity markets moved higher for 6 May delivery as weaker renewable generation, tighter regional balances and stronger evening ramping requirements pushed spot prices upward across nearly all major exchanges. The rebound extended a recent pattern in Central and SEE power pricing, underscoring how quickly the region’s market outcomes are being shaped by the availability of conventional flexibility.

Spot prices firm across key exchanges

Hungarian HUPX baseload climbed to €126.25/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €131.52/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP reached €133.81/MWh. The move reflected a broader tightening in system conditions rather than a single-country driver.

Renewables drop tightens balances despite moderate demand

Total SEE and Hungarian power consumption eased to 27.8 GW, down roughly 340 MW day on day. Even with demand relatively moderate, falling renewable output tightened system balances and increased thermal generation requirements.

Solar generation across the region fell by more than 520 MW, wind output declined by around 150 MW, and hydro production weakened by approximately 340 MW, linked to lower water availability and reduced flexibility across several Balkan systems.

Thermal units return to the dispatch stack

With renewables slipping, thermal assets moved back into the dispatch stack to compensate for the decline. Coal-fired generation increased by more than 600 MW, while gas-fired output rose by around 180 MW. The shift reinforced a growing structural dependence in SEE markets on conventional balancing capacity during evening demand ramps and lower-renewable periods.

Intraday volatility persists as midday weakens and evenings peak

Market structure continued to show rising intraday volatility despite the softer overall demand backdrop. Hourly curves across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX again displayed deep midday weakness followed by pronounced evening peaks during hours 20–21. The pattern reflected solar cannibalization effects combined with insufficient storage capacity across the region.

Hungary remains central to balancing; spreads widen

Hungary maintained its role as a central balancing hub within the regional market structure. The Hungarian-German day-ahead spread widened sharply to around €3.8/MWh, reversing part of earlier convergence seen during periods of stronger renewable output in Central Europe.

Cross-border flows show ongoing north-south pressure

Cross-border flow data pointed to continued north-south balancing pressure. Romania exported roughly 1.36 GW, while Serbia remained structurally short with net imports near 560 MW. Croatia also stayed a net importer at around 730 MW.

Bulgaria continued exporting heavily toward Romania and Serbia, while Hungary maintained strong exports into Croatia and Serbia.

Forward markets strengthen on firmer fuel and carbon

Forward markets also strengthened, supported by firmer fuel and carbon prices. Hungarian Week 20 baseload rose to €104.5/MWh, while Cal-26 traded close to €114/MWh. EUA carbon allowances climbed toward €75.7/t, and Austrian CEGH gas prices increased above €49/MWh.

The strengthening forward complex continues to support elevated clean spark and dark spread economics for flexible thermal assets across SEE, particularly during evening balancing windows.

Reliability concerns persist: outages hit earnings

Operational reliability of regional thermal infrastructure remained under scrutiny. Bosnia’s RiTE Ugljevik reported a €18.3 million first-quarter loss after prolonged outages tied to coal supply shortages and delayed mining development works; the unit only recently returned to operation after being offline since January.

Montenegro’s EPCG also reported a sharp deterioration in financial performance, posting a €92.1 million net loss for 2025 following the extended environmental reconstruction outage at TPP Pljevlja. The eight-month shutdown reduced domestic generation availability and increased balancing costs for the utility.

Investment pipeline faces financing hurdles

Hydropower development projects across the Western Balkans continued facing financing and execution challenges. Bosnia’s HPP Dabar project slowed substantially after China Exim Bank suspended financing linked to unmet contractual milestones. ERS terminated the construction contract for HPP Mrsovo following disputes over redesign requirements tied to stricter flood-protection standards.

Decarbonization-linked support grows; corporate restructuring watched

In Romania, authorities launched a proposed €500 million support mechanism for biofuel production projects—including SAF and renewable diesel facilities—under the Modernization Fund framework. The scheme highlights an increasing regional investment focus on decarbonization-linked industrial infrastructure rather than purely conventional generation expansion.

Serbian market participants also tracked negotiations surrounding NIS ownership restructuring. Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic said discussions involving MOL and GazpromNeft could conclude by mid-May ahead of an OFAC licensing deadline later this month.

What comes next: stable weather but flexibility scarcity risk remains

Weather forecasts for the coming days point to relatively stable temperatures across most SEE markets, limiting immediate demand-side volatility. Traders nevertheless remain focused on renewable variability and evening balancing risks as the region enters its higher solar-output summer season.

The broader market narrative increasingly reflects a transition from traditional supply scarcity toward flexibility scarcity: while renewable penetration continues rising rapidly across SEE, storage deployment pace, interconnection upgrades and balancing-market development have not yet fully absorbed intraday renewable volatility—leaving spot pricing prone to simultaneous midday oversupply pressure and evening scarcity premiums across both spot and forward curves.