Montenegro’s trade deficit deepens in 2025 as imports rise faster than exports

Montenegro’s external trade position deteriorated in 2025 as import demand outpaced a weakening export performance, intensifying the country’s structural trade imbalance even as overall trade activity rose.

Total foreign trade reached €5.03 billion in 2025, up 7.2% year-on-year. The headline increase reflected stronger economic activity and rising import demand, but it was driven almost entirely by imports rather than improvements on the export side.

Imports grow, exports contract

Exports declined by 6.9% year-on-year to €572.3 million, underscoring persistent constraints in Montenegro’s export base. Imports increased by 9.3% to €4.46 billion, widening the gap between domestic demand and the country’s external supply capacity.

As a result, the trade deficit expanded significantly. Export coverage of imports fell to 12.8% from 15.1% a year earlier—an indicator of how heavily Montenegro relies on imported goods to support consumption and investment.

Energy concentration on exports; capital goods dominate imports

The composition of trade highlights the imbalance’s underlying drivers. On the export side, Montenegro’s sales remain narrow and commodity-led: mineral fuels and lubricants totaled €136.9 million, while electricity exports alone contributed €95.5 million, making energy the largest export category.

This concentration points to limited diversification and heightened sensitivity to energy production and pricing dynamics. On the import side, capital goods and consumer-related demand dominate. Machinery and transport equipment reached €1.11 billion, including road vehicles at €420.2 million—consistent with ongoing needs for investment goods and infrastructure inputs as well as consumer imports.

Regional integration remains central

Montenegro’s trading relationships are still anchored regionally but show increasing breadth beyond its immediate neighborhood. Serbia remained the largest partner on both sides of the balance sheet, with €151 million in exports and €777.8 million in imports, reflecting deep economic integration between the two markets.

Outside the region, China and Germany were key sources of imports at €549.4 million and €453.1 million respectively, indicating reliance on global manufacturing supply chains—particularly for equipment, vehicles and industrial goods.

In terms of frameworks shaping flows, CEFTA countries and the European Union account for the largest share of trade, reinforcing Montenegro’s position within regional and European economic networks despite a structurally negative trade balance.

A growing but imbalanced trade model

The overall picture is one of expanding trade volumes alongside a widening divergence between imports and exports. With strong domestic demand meeting a limited export base—particularly concentrated in energy—the deficit remains a defining feature of Montenegro’s economy.

This dynamic reinforces a familiar structural constraint: growth continues to depend on external supply while export revenues are generated from a small set of sectors. Without further diversification of exports and scaling of industrial capacity, Montenegro’s trade deficit is likely to persist as an important pressure point for investors assessing longer-term competitiveness.