Serbia’s early-2026 trade data show exports gaining ground over imports

Serbia’s external trade performance in early 2026 is pointing to a gradual rebalancing of its trade structure—one investors will watch closely because it can feed into macro stability and the credibility of the country’s industrial growth model.

Exports outpace imports in the first quarter

In the first three months of 2026, total foreign trade in goods reached between €19.0 billion and €19.03 billion, up 3.3% year-on-year. While the headline number rose modestly, the internal composition shifted more sharply: exports accelerated meaningfully, whereas imports largely plateaued.

Exports totaled €8.7 billion, increasing 7.1% year-on-year, supported by stronger performance across manufacturing and energy-linked segments. Imports reached €10.3 billion, rising just 0.3%, a pattern consistent with cooling demand for imported goods or improved substitution dynamics.

A smaller deficit and better import coverage

The divergence translated directly into an improved external balance. Serbia’s trade deficit stood at €1.6 billion, down 25.4% versus the same period in 2025. At the same time, export coverage of imports improved to 84.4%, compared with 79.1% a year earlier—an indicator that external financing pressures may be easing.

Europe remains the core trading partner

Geographically, Serbia’s trade remains heavily anchored in Europe: the European Union accounted for 59.2% of total trade. That concentration underscores Serbia’s position as an integrated manufacturing and supply-chain node within the EU industrial perimeter.

Surpluses within CEFTA highlight regional competitiveness

Within the CEFTA framework, Serbia continued to generate substantial surpluses. Exports to CEFTA markets were approximately €1.1 billion against imports of about €361 million, producing a surplus near €740 million and a coverage ratio above 300%. The figures reflect Serbia’s role as a net exporter of electricity, fuels, and industrial goods to neighboring economies.

Manufacturing-linked exports meet energy-heavy imports

The composition of trade also aligns with a manufacturing-driven profile that relies on specific imported inputs. Key export flows include electricity, base metals, chemicals, machinery, and automotive components. Imports are dominated by energy inputs as well as machinery and intermediate industrial goods—consistent with an economy producing for export while drawing on imported components and energy.

March momentum suggests support into Q2

Monthly data point to additional acceleration toward the end of the quarter. In March alone, exports reached €3.3 billion, up 15.4% year-on-year, while imports exceeded €4 billion, rising 6.3%. That pattern suggests export momentum strengthening into Q2, potentially linked to recovering EU demand and improved industrial output.

Diversified export activity across regions

Export activity inside Serbia appears relatively diversified by region: Vojvodina accounts for 29.9% of exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia at 25%, Southern and Eastern Serbia at 23.6%, and Belgrade at 20.4%. The spread indicates broader industrial participation rather than reliance on a single export hub.

Why it matters for investors

Taken together, the first-quarter results suggest Serbia is moving toward an external position where export growth is no longer being fully offset by import expansion. With the trade deficit down by more than a quarter year-on-year, the data point to improving macro fundamentals—particularly if this trajectory persists—supporting tighter current account dynamics, stronger FX stability prospects, and improved credit positioning over the medium term.