Bulgaria’s energy regulator approves 5% May 2026 wholesale gas price rise, citing supply stability

Bulgaria’s energy regulator has approved a moderate increase in wholesale natural gas prices for May 2026, a move that matters for both household tariffs and the country’s broader energy security outlook. The Commission for Energy and Water Regulation (KEVR) set the new level in line with a proposal submitted by public supplier Bulgargaz in mid-April.

Wholesale price set at 35.98 euros/MWh

KEVR approved a 5% rise in the wholesale natural gas price for May 2026, bringing it to 35.98 euros/MWh, excluding VAT and excise duty. The decision follows a prior 5.1% increase approved for April, extending an upward trend but keeping growth described as moderate and controlled.

Gap versus Europe’s benchmark supports domestic tariff stability

Even after the May adjustment, the projected wholesale price remains roughly 10 euros/MWh below levels seen at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), one of Europe’s main gas benchmarks. KEVR said this differential helps support relatively favorable domestic tariffs, potentially reducing exposure to sharper volatility observed in other European markets.

Regulator flags geopolitical risk, storage pace and LNG competition

Looking ahead, KEVR highlighted several variables that could affect pricing over coming months. These include geopolitical uncertainties impacting major supply routes, the pace of storage replenishment, and intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes. Together, these factors point to an environment where near-term costs could still shift despite the current “moderate” trajectory.

Diversified supply mix planned for May

For May demand, Bulgaria plans to rely on a diversified supply structure. Deliveries from Azerbaijan via the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector are expected to be central, complemented by LNG imports arranged through traders and withdrawals from the Chiren gas storage facility. Officials said this combination is intended to preserve both supply stability and flexibility.

Azerbaijan contract expected to cover most summer consumption

Authorities also noted that a long-term agreement with Azerbaijan is expected to cover nearly all Bulgarian consumption during the summer months. By reducing dependence on volatile spot markets during peak demand, the arrangement is designed to improve predictability and strengthen energy security for the country.