Portfolio scale is reshaping power trading across Romania, Hungary and Serbia as arbitrage margins narrow

Virtu.energy

Power trading across Romania, Hungary and Serbia is increasingly driven by a single operational reality: when price gaps tighten, the winners tend to be the firms with the deepest generation-to-supply-to-balancing portfolios rather than the most aggressive proprietary desks. Exchange liquidity remains important in all three markets, but “easy” directional bets have become harder as regional pricing has converged; day-to-day advantage has shifted toward short-term optimisation, congestion management and portfolio hedging.

Romania’s layered market rewards portfolio breadth

In Romania, the strongest commercial positioning is still associated with Hidroelectrica, which reported RON 3.303bn net profit in 2025 even as hydrology weakened and gross electricity production fell to 12,215GWh. The company’s scale matters because it combines low-cost hydro generation with flexibility and substantial wholesale selling capacity—placing it at the center of Romania’s electricity portfolio landscape.

Electrica, meanwhile, remains one of the largest supply-driven trading books. It posted RON 1.219bn net profit for 2025 alongside 7.3TWh supplied to the retail market, with a total supply market share of 14.73%. OMV Petrom’s role adds another dimension: its gas-fired plant at Brazi generated 4.7TWh in 2025, feeding into a broader gas-and-power optimisation model that links fuel output to power decisions.

The country also stands out for how much activity runs through both exchange trading and bilateral contracting structures. According to OPCOM, Romanian day-ahead volumes reached 15.7TWh in 2025, with a base day-ahead price of €108.16/MWh. Beyond spot, Romania recorded additional volumes via bilateral mechanisms: <13.88TWh on the bilateral flex mechanism, 6.58TWh on PC-OTC, and 5.45TWh on CM-OTC.