SEE power exchanges in March show stronger liquidity and EU-linked pricing—yet Western Balkan discounts persist

South East Europe’s electricity trading activity in March combined growing integration with a stubborn divide between EU-linked markets and the Western Balkans. Trading volumes stayed robust and price movements tracked seasonal shifts, fuel cost pressures and cross-border interdependence—yet structural discounts in several non-EU markets continued to signal uneven market maturity.

A cohesive but stratified market

March confirmed that the SEE region is moving toward a more unified power market without fully eliminating regional disparities. Liquidity improvements, expanding intraday trading and narrower spreads between EU-integrated exchanges suggest progress toward convergence with the broader European energy system. At the same time, persistent price differentials across parts of the western Balkans highlighted challenges that remain tied to generation mix, liquidity levels and interconnection constraints.

Hungary’s HUPX remains the pricing benchmark

Hungary’s power exchange, HUPX, continued to anchor regional pricing in March. Total day-ahead traded volume reached 2.79 TWh, reinforcing its role as a liquidity hub connecting Central and South East Europe. The average baseload price was €117.4/MWh, up 3.6% from February, while the peak averaged €103.52/MWh as demand moderated seasonally.

Intraday trading volumes rose to 1.085 TWh, up 11.5% month-on-month. The increase points to growing reliance on real-time balancing as renewable penetration expands and traders adjust positions in response to changing wind and solar output. HUPX’s influence on price formation extended beyond Hungary, particularly affecting Slovenia, Croatia and Romania.

CROPEX builds on EU integration

Croatia’s CROPEX recorded 990 GWh of electricity traded in March, placing it among the most active exchanges in South East Europe outside Hungary. With Croatia’s EU membership and participation in European market-coupling frameworks, CROPEX functions as a bridge between Central Europe and the Adriatic region.

Cross-border connectivity with Slovenia, Hungary and Italy supports arbitrage opportunities and improves price transparency. As energy transitions accelerate across the region, CROPEX is positioned to play an increasingly strategic role in facilitating renewable integration while strengthening liquidity along the Adriatic corridor.

EU-integrated core tracks closely with Hungary

Exchanges in Slovenia (BSP), Romania (OPCOM), Bulgaria (IBEX) and Greece (HENEX) moved closely with Hungarian price dynamics during March. Together they form an EU-integrated core characterized by strong cross-border interconnections, higher liquidity and alignment with European regulatory frameworks.

Romania’s OPCOM benefits from links to both Central and Eastern European markets. Bulgaria’s IBEX and Greece’s HENEX provide gateways connecting continental Europe to routes toward the Eastern Mediterranean. Slovenia’s BSP plays a key coupling role between Adriatic and Alpine systems. The close alignment across these venues underscores how market coupling mechanisms are working—and how interconnectedness is deepening across SEE.

Western Balkan exchanges keep a structural discount

Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the most influential exchange among Western Balkan markets. While average prices were lower than those seen on EU-integrated exchanges, SEEPEX still plays a central role in regional trade. The structural discount reflects domestic generation dynamics—particularly coal and hydropower reliance—as well as evolving interconnection capacity.

Serbia’s geographic position between Central Europe and the Balkans gives SEEPEX potential to develop into a convergence hub. The article points to grid modernization, regulatory alignment with the European Union and renewable capacity expansion as factors expected to strengthen that role over time.

Montenegro (BELEN), North Macedonia (MEMO) and Albania (ALPEX) represent an emerging tier of exchanges with smaller volumes and lower liquidity than their EU-aligned counterparts—but they are gaining relevance as integration accelerates. Montenegro’s market reflects heavy hydropower reliance; MEMO continues developing as a wholesale platform aligned with EU standards; ALPEX—described as the newest exchange—expands its footprint while supporting integration between Albanian and Kosovan electricity markets.

Fuel costs, carbon prices and renewables shaped March volatility

Across SEE, prices broadly firmed during March due to seasonal transitions from winter to spring alongside higher fuel costs and carbon prices influencing marginal generation costs. Gas and coal remained critical price-setting fuels, while emissions allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System contributed to elevated power prices.

Renewables played an increasingly visible role in shaping day-to-day dynamics: solar output rose with improving weather conditions, while hydropower production fluctuated based on water inflows. These shifts contributed to greater volatility and reinforced the importance of intraday trading and balancing markets.

Integration improves security of supply—but infrastructure remains key

The SEE electricity market is progressively aligning with Europe’s internal energy market through expanding interdependence between national hubs: Hungary acts as a gateway linking the Balkans to Central Europe; Slovenia and Croatia connect toward Italy and Austria; Romania and Bulgaria link SEE to Eastern European corridors; Greece serves as a southern hub with growing connections toward Mediterranean routes.

This network supports price convergence where coupling works effectively—improving security of supply while enabling renewable integration—but persistent disparities versus Western Balkan markets underline why infrastructure investment and regulatory harmonization remain central priorities.

Investment implications: flexibility needs rise as renewables expand

For investors, utilities and traders, March trends point to both opportunity and risk differentiation across the region. Convergence toward EU pricing structures creates potential across segments including renewable generation, grid modernization, battery storage and cross-border trading.

The growth of intraday markets also signals rising demand for flexibility solutions as renewable penetration increases. The article highlights transmission infrastructure upgrades alongside energy storage investments as pivotal for improving market efficiency while supporting system stability—particularly as negative pricing events begin appearing more widely in parts of SEE alongside expanding renewable capacity.

Outlook: steady progress toward unity—with uneven end-state convergence

March showed that SEE power exchanges are entering a new phase marked by stronger liquidity, resilient pricing patterns around established benchmarks like HUPX,และ increasing cross-border cooperation among EU-integrated markets such as CROPEX (and BSP/OPCOM/IBEX/HENEX). However, structural discounts across Serbia-related venues plus BELEN/MEMO/ALPEX reflect ongoing differences that will likely take time to resolve through regulatory alignment, infrastructure build-out and continued renewable deployment.

Taken together, the month’s trading picture suggests steady progress toward deeper integration within Europe’s evolving electricity landscape—while also making clear that full regional convergence will depend on closing gaps in connectivity, liquidity depth and market design across South East Europe.