Europe power prices rebound late April into early May as gas costs and renewable swings dominate

Power prices across Europe moved sharply in late April, with most major electricity markets starting the final week of the month higher than at the beginning of the previous week. The pattern mattered for traders and utilities because it reflected shifting fuel costs and variable renewable output—factors that can quickly change day-to-day pricing.

Across several markets, a sharp price drop hit on May 1, but prices generally recovered over the weekend. That rebound translated into higher weekly average prices in most regions. Still, not all countries followed the same direction: the British market fell by 2.7%, the Dutch market declined by 3.9%, and Belgium recorded a larger drop of 7.3%. Italy was broadly stable, edging down slightly by 0.6%, while France posted the strongest increase at 63%, attributed to an exceptionally low base in the prior week.

Looking at other markets covered by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, price changes ranged from a 4.7% rise in Germany to a 39% increase in the Nordic region. Weekly averages generally stayed below €65/MWh across most European markets, but Britain and Italy were exceptions, averaging €105.61/MWh and €108.49/MWh respectively.

France’s low base lifts weekly averages; negative pricing appears

The weekly average in France was far lower than elsewhere at €12.45/MWh, even as France recorded a steep week-on-week increase driven by last week’s unusually low starting point. On an individual day basis, France also set an extreme reference point: it recorded its lowest daily price in history at €41.39/MWh on May 1.

May 1 also brought negative pricing in other countries. Germany saw prices fall to −€2.08/MWh and Belgium to −€5.47/MWh—the latter representing the lowest level since May 2025. The Netherlands and Italy likewise reached their lowest daily prices since October 2025 on May 1.

Italy and Britain see frequent high-price days

While some markets experienced unusually low or negative values on May 1, Italy and Britain instead recorded frequent daily prices above €100/MWh during the week. In both markets, daily peaks exceeded €120/MWh; Italy’s highest daily average occurred on April 28 at €128.59/MWh.

Gas costs and renewable variability drive near-term direction

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting said upward pressure on prices was driven by higher gas prices alongside lower wind and solar generation, though reduced demand in some markets temporarily limited increases. For investors watching near-term risk signals—particularly around fuel-cost pass-through and renewable output—this mix helps explain why price levels diverged so widely across neighboring systems within days.

For the first week of May, AleaSoft expects prices to rise across European markets, citing recovering demand, lower wind output in key regions, and continued influence from gas price movements.