Europe energy and carbon markets end April on a rollercoaster as geopolitics and supply signals unsettle prices

European energy and carbon markets closed out April with pronounced volatility, underscoring how quickly investor sentiment can shift when geopolitics collide with supply expectations. Across oil, gas and CO2 allowance trading, prices moved in tight ranges—then reversed—reflecting persistent uncertainty in the Persian Gulf and ongoing pressure from below-target gas inventories.

Brent reverses after hitting a weekly peak

During the last week of April, Brent crude oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market rose sharply before reversing in the final sessions. On April 29, prices reached a weekly high of $118.03/bbl, the highest level since April 1, according to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. However, the subsequent two trading days saw a pullback: prices fell to a weekly low of $108.17/bbl on May 1.

Even with that correction, Brent’s closing level remained 2.7% higher than the previous week. Market sentiment continued to be shaped by geopolitical tensions tied to developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran.

OPEC+ raises June output as supply risks stay elevated

At the same time, OPEC+ announced on May 3 that it would proceed with increased production in June, despite the United Arab Emirates exiting the organization on May 1. While that decision points to greater near-term supply, AleaSoft noted that supply risks from the Persian Gulf region remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty—an imbalance that can keep price swings front and center for hedgers and traders.

TTF gas jumps then steadies above €45/MWh

Front-month TTF gas futures on ICE also traded with notable swings. Prices opened the week lower, reaching a weekly low of €43.59/MWh on April 28. The next day brought a sharp rebound of 7.5%, lifting prices to a weekly high of €46.85/MWh.

After that surge, prices eased slightly but stayed above €45/MWh, closing at €45.77/MWh—up 2.0% versus the previous Friday. AleaSoft attributed support for gas prices to geopolitical risk linked to the US–Iran conflict, while European gas storage levels remained below 35%, adding additional price pressure.

Carbon allowances drift lower as downside pressure persists

In carbon markets, [[PRRS_LINK_3]] (EEX, December 2026 contract) traded mostly below €75/t over the week. The contract peaked on April 28 at €75.13/t before slipping to €73.22/t on April 29 for the weekly low.

Prices recovered modestly to €73.80/t on April 30 but still ended the week 1.5% lower than the previous week’s final session. AleaSoft characterized this as moderate downward pressure in the carbon market.

Taken together, late-April trading highlighted how tightly Europe’s energy complex remains coupled to geopolitical developments: oil and gas reacted quickly to shifting risk perceptions and supply signals, while CO2 allowances reflected more subdued—but still negative—momentum as traders weighed broader market conditions into year-ahead pricing.