Geopolitics lifts European oil and gas prices in late April as EU carbon futures soften

In the fourth week of April, European energy markets leaned sharply toward geopolitical risk, with both oil and gas prices moving higher across the week even as EU carbon prices weakened. For investors tracking the interaction between fuel costs and emissions-linked assets, the divergence offered a clear snapshot of how supply fears can lift traditional energy benchmarks while carbon markets absorb softer sentiment.

Brent extends gains on Strait of Hormuz closure concerns

Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on ICE followed an upward trajectory throughout the week. On Monday, April 20, prices hit the weekly low at $95.48/bbl. From there, a sustained rally carried the contract to a weekly peak of $105.33/bbl on Friday, April 24—an outcome AleaSoft Energy Forecasting described as 17% higher than the previous Friday and the highest level since April 8.

The main driver was escalating geopolitical tension, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran. Those developments increased perceptions of supply risk and reinforced bullish momentum in global oil markets.

European gas rises alongside LNG security worries

Gas prices also moved higher during the same period on ICE. The front-month contract recorded its weekly low at €40.29/MWh on Monday, April 20, before rising steadily through midweek. By Friday, April 24, it reached a weekly high of €44.86/MWh—up 16% compared with the previous week’s final session, according to AleaSoft.

AleaSoft linked the move to geopolitical developments affecting LNG supply security. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, together with disruptions tied to restricted maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz, added a risk premium that supported higher prices across European gas benchmarks.

EU carbon allowance futures move lower as emissions sentiment cools

While oil and gas strengthened on supply-risk pricing, EU carbon emission allowance futures (EUA) for December 2026 on EEX showed weaker performance. Prices opened at €76.15/t on Monday—already down 1.7% from the previous Friday—and then eased further during midweek.

The weekly low came on Wednesday, April 22 at €74.42/t. Although there was a slight recovery in the final two sessions, EUA prices stayed below €75/t and closed on Friday, April 24 at €74.91/t—3.3% lower week-on-week.

Overall, late-April trading reflected strong upward momentum in both oil and gas markets driven by geopolitical risk—especially developments affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz—while EU carbon futures moved in the opposite direction amid softer sentiment and a modest corrective phase in emissions trading.