Romania’s early-2026 power balance shows demand softness, but supply growth led by hydropower and wind

Romania’s electricity market in the opening months of 2026 is showing a familiar split: demand is easing modestly, but domestic power supply is expanding—largely on the back of weather- and renewables-led output. The shift matters for investors and utilities because it changes how much capacity Romania needs to import, how much it can export, and how quickly the country’s generation mix is rebalancing.

Consumption edges down as households weaken

Data from the National Institute for Statistics (INS) show electricity consumption in Romania totaled 8.78 TWh during the first two months of 2026, down 0.8% versus the same period in 2025. Industrial demand was comparatively resilient, rising slightly to 6.73 TWh (+0.3%), suggesting steady activity in the production sector.

Household electricity use fell by 4.4% to 1.97 TWh, contrasting with public lighting demand, which increased by 2.9% to about 80.4 GWh.

Generation rises on hydropower and wind; thermal and nuclear slip

On the supply side, total electricity production increased to 9.55 TWh—up 9.3% year-on-year. The biggest contributor was hydropower, which jumped 46.8% to 2.5 TWh on favorable hydrological conditions.

Wind power output also climbed strongly, rising 34.8% to 1.36 TWh. By contrast, thermal generation declined by 6.5% to 3.48 TWh, and output from the Cernavodă nuclear power plant fell by 3.2% to 1.88 TWh.

Solar production—including prosumers—reached 323.2 GWh but was down 10.1% compared with the previous year.

Exports increase while imports fall

The generation uplift translated into a change in trade flows. Exports rose by 7.9% to 2.12 TWh, while imports dropped sharply by 15.7% to 2.59 TWh—an indication that stronger domestic output reduced reliance on foreign supply.

Broader energy mix continues to shift away from fossil fuels

Beyond electricity, Romania’s broader primary energy picture also points to structural change: total primary energy production declined by 2.1%, reaching 2,688.6 million tons of oil equivalent.

The INS data show notable decreases across key fossil categories, including coal (-26.1%), oil (-8.6%) and natural gas (-1.2%). Together with the early-2026 power generation trends—where hydropower and wind expanded while thermal and nuclear output eased—the figures underscore an ongoing transition in Romania’s energy mix.

For market participants, the combination of softer consumption and stronger renewable-led generation could influence pricing dynamics and cross-border flows over coming months, while declines in primary fossil production highlight continued pressure on traditional supply chains even as renewables scale up.