SEE power prices tumble on easing imports and stronger solar swings, but evening tightness persists

South-East European day-ahead power prices dropped sharply on 23 April, a move driven by easing import requirements and a more balanced regional system. While the headline decline signals reduced spot tightness, traders also highlighted that the market’s intraday pattern remains dominated by solar-driven swings and steep evening ramping needs—conditions that continue to support sharp peak-hour pricing.

Regional day-ahead declines across SEE

Most regional markets recorded day-on-day losses of between EUR 18/MWh and EUR 32/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX cleared at EUR 93.14/MWh (down EUR 18.2/MWh), Romania’s OPCOM fell to EUR 88.31/MWh (down EUR 27.9/MWh), and Bulgaria’s IBEX declined to EUR 87.71/MWh (down EUR 24.6/MWh). Greece’s HENEX dropped to EUR 88.12/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP fell to EUR 74.61/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX eased to EUR 77.35/MWh.

In the Western Balkans, Serbia’s SEEPEX closed at EUR 65.99/MWh, Montenegro’s BELEN at EUR 73.75/MWh, North Macedonia’s MEMO at EUR 69.60/MWh, and Albania’s ALPEX at EUR 70.95/MWh.

Easier system tightness as imports fall

The coordinated price decline reflected clear easing in system tightness, with net imports into SEE dropping to 1,662 MW—down 869 MW day on day. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia also fell to 2,760 MW (down 497 MW), pointing to reduced reliance on external supply to meet demand.

At the same time, the Hungary–Germany day-ahead spread narrowed to EUR 28.9/MWh (down around EUR 4/MWh). That suggests Hungary remains structurally priced above Western Europe, but the premium is moderating as regional fundamentals improve.

Demand stable; generation mix covers load

Regional consumption stayed broadly steady at 30,640 MW, only slightly below the previous day, while total generation reached 28,265 MW. The generation mix provided sufficient coverage: hydro output was reported at 7,067 MW, coal at 4,954 MW, gas at 3,579 MW, nuclear at 5,811 MW; solar contributed 3,715 MW and wind added 1,883 MW.

Intraday volatility remains elevated despite lower spot prices

Even with softer headline prices, intraday volatility persisted across all markets—an outcome consistent with a system that still faces operational constraints during evening hours. In Hungary, prices ranged from a daily minimum of EUR -64.2/MWh to a maximum of EUR 277.0/MWh. The spread underscores how strong midday solar generation can push prices down sharply before steep evening ramping requirements drive scarcity pricing.

Similar dynamics appeared elsewhere: Slovenia traded between EUR -44.3/MWh and EUR 152.0/MWh, while Romania moved from EUR -3.2/MWh up to EUR 196.5/MWh. Serbia and Montenegro avoided negative pricing, with minimum levels holding at or near EUR 0/MWh; however, both still saw peak prices above EUR 150/MWh, indicating that evening scarcity has not disappeared.

Weather outlook points to pressure on daytime prices

Market participants cited improving weather conditions and lower system stress as key drivers behind the softer spot outcomes. Temperatures across SEE and Hungary are trending higher over the coming days—reducing demand pressure—while solar output continues to weigh on midday pricing.

Flows also suggested improved balance: Hungary and Greece remained the largest net importers; Romania and Bulgaria continued exporting into neighboring markets; and Serbia along with other Western Balkan systems operated closer to balance than before.

Fuel indicators steady; move appears short-term

On fuel-related inputs, forward indicators were described as broadly stable: Austrian gas was assessed at EUR 44.89/MWh and EU carbon allowances were at EUR 74.41/t. With these measures not showing a major shift in the data provided, the sharp drop in spot power prices appears driven primarily by short-term supply-demand fundamentals rather than structural changes in fuel costs.

What traders expect next

Looking ahead, traders expect continued pressure on daytime prices as solar generation increases alongside further temperature rises. However, they also expect strong price spikes during peak hours to persist because steep evening ramps and limited flexibility remain part of the system’s operating reality—keeping intraday volatility elevated across SEE markets.