SEE day-ahead power prices surge on Monday as demand rebounds and renewables ease

South-East Europe’s day-ahead power market snapped back on Monday, with prices reversing sharply from negative weekend conditions. The move was driven by a rebound in regional demand and weaker renewable generation, tightening the balance between supply and consumption and reshaping which technologies set the marginal price.

Regional price rebound across major exchanges

Hungary’s HUPX baseload price climbed to €104.75/MWh, a day-on-day increase of €124.6/MWh after Sunday’s deeply negative pricing environment. Similar upward shifts were recorded across the region: Romania’s OPCOM reached €93.42/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP €99.64/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX €98.43/MWh.

Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €82.46/MWh, keeping a discount versus core Central European markets. Bulgaria and Greece traded near €80/MWh, reflecting a regional pattern of lower pricing outside the most tightly balanced hubs.

Demand recovery tightens the weekday system

The rebound reflects a structural swing away from weekend oversupply—linked primarily to strong solar output and subdued demand—toward a tighter weekday system where conventional generation regained influence in price formation.

A key factor was a large increase in forecast electricity demand across the SEE-Hungary region. Consumption was projected at 28,217 MW, up by 2,988 MW compared with the previous day as industrial and commercial loads returned after the weekend lull.

Renewables ease; thermal units regain marginal influence

At the same time, renewable generation lost some of its downward pressure on prices. Solar output fell by 329 MW day-on-day, while hydro generation dropped more sharply by 637 MW due to weaker hydrological conditions. Wind generation increased by 147 MW but only partially offset the decline, leaving the system more dependent on thermal sources.

This change in the generation stack pushed marginal pricing higher on the cost curve, with coal- and gas-fired units regaining influence during peak hours.

Cross-border flows reduce inflows into SEE-Hungary

Cross-border trading also contributed to tighter market conditions. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region fell to -245 MW, down by 1,164 MW day-on-day, indicating reduced inflows from core Central European markets. Lower import availability limited supply-side flexibility and supported regional price convergence—particularly between Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia.

Despite that convergence within SEE markets, a notable spread persisted toward Italy. Day-ahead prices there reached €122.41/MWh, sustaining export incentives along the Balkan–Italian corridor.

Volatile intraday profile highlights renewable intermittency

Intraday pricing remained highly volatile: deep midday troughs were followed by strong evening peaks. In Hungary specifically, hourly prices ranged from negative levels during solar peak hours to highs above €270/MWh, underscoring how renewable intermittency continues to drive swings within a single day.

Fuel markets steady; power fundamentals lead

Fuel markets were broadly stable during the period described, suggesting that Monday’s electricity moves were driven mainly by power-market fundamentals rather than changes in input costs. Austrian CEGH gas prices hovered around €45/MWh, while EU carbon allowances remained near €75/t.

Generation mix: nuclear and hydro underpin supply; gas balances peaks

Nuclear and hydro continued to provide much of the supply backbone in the regional mix at 23% and 21% respectively. Solar accounted for 17% while coal made up 18%. Gas-fired generation remained relatively limited at around 9%, but it played an important balancing role when demand rose into peak periods.

Outlook: volatility likely as renewables meet demand cycles

Serbia is described as a mid-merit market within this structure—trading at a consistent discount to Hungary while balancing flows between Central Europe and parts of the southern Balkans. Commercial flow data point to continued imports from Hungary alongside exports toward Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, reinforcing Serbia’s role as both transit and balancing node.

Market participants expect continued volatility shaped by how renewable output aligns with demand cycles. Strong solar production is likely to keep midday prices under pressure, while tightening hydro conditions combined with stable demand could support elevated evening peaks—maintaining wide intraday spreads across South-East European markets.