SEE gas market Week 18: TTF risk premium tightens as LNG flows rebalance amid U.S.-Iran shipping uncertainty

South East Europe’s gas market is returning to a familiar pattern: prices are being pulled by geopolitical risk, even as regional LNG supply flows look more mixed. In Week 18, Dutch TTF futures climbed +5.5% week-on-week to an average of €45.39/MWh, after dipping briefly to €43.67/MWh and then rebounding to a weekly high of €46.86/MWh on 29 April. By the end of the week, prices consolidated close to €46/MWh—an indication that the first upward move was absorbed, but the underlying risk premium was not removed.

Geopolitical headlines keep the price sensitive

The report points to continued uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran conflict and potential shipping disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz. It notes that 20% of global LNG passes through the Strait—mainly from Qatar—while only 8% of EU LNG imports come from Qatar. That mismatch matters for physical exposure: Europe may have less immediate dependence on any single disrupted stream. But it does not insulate prices, because a prolonged conflict would intensify competition for non-disrupted LNG cargoes and raise Europe’s import bill.

The financial sensitivity is significant. The report estimates that a doubling of gas prices could add about €100bn to European gas import costs over the next 12 months, compared with €117bn spent on EU gas imports in 2025.

LNG flows across SEE diverge, but optionality remains central

Within South East Europe, LNG inflows were mixed in Week 18 but strategically important for balancing supply and demand. Greece’s LNG inflows fell -23.0% week-on-week to 510.99 GWh, while Italy increased LNG inflows by +17.81% to 5,106.75 GWh. Croatia recorded the sharpest change, with LNG inflows rising +180.8% to 712.48 GWh—strengthening the role of the Adriatic corridor in regional gas balancing.

Taken together, the data points to a more diversified European gas system than during earlier crises, but one that remains exposed to price volatility. The report highlights that Europe is less vulnerable than in the 2022 Russian supply crisis due to warmer weather, additional LNG supply, weaker Chinese LNG demand and storage support. Wood Mackenzie data cited in the report says 40 mtpa of new LNG supply was added on an annualized basis since the start of 2026, while European storage stood at 28% at the end of March.

Gas still sets power prices as national exposure diverges

For SEE power markets, gas continues to act as the marginal-price anchor. Even though thermal generation declined in Week 18, gas-fired plants still determine evening and balancing-hour electricity prices when solar output falls. Greece reduced gas-fired generation by -22.4%, while Romania increased gas generation by +57.1%, underscoring how national gas-to-power exposure can shift sharply even within one region.

The key takeaway for market participants is that SEE gas risk is moving from a narrower focus on physical shortage toward broader cost volatility driven by geopolitical events and flexible supply dynamics. Italy and Croatia are strengthening LNG-backed optionality; Greece saw lower LNG inflows for the week; and TTF remains exposed to geopolitical headlines. For regional utilities, traders and large industrial buyers, this reframes priority from simply securing access to gas toward managing the price at which flexible supplies can support power balancing during volatile renewable output and peak-load periods.

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