Romania’s oil picture darkens: imports fall and long-term output decline persists

Romania’s oil market is showing signs of tightening supply and weaker upstream momentum, with both import volumes and domestic production declining in early 2026. Data from the Romanian National Institute for Statistics (INS) show that crude oil imports in the first two months of 2026 totaled 1.256 million tons of oil equivalent, down by 271,700 tons (–17.8%) compared with the same period a year earlier.

Domestic crude oil production also weakened. Output reached 379,700 tons of oil equivalent, which is 35,700 tons (–8.6%) lower year-on-year, reflecting a continued structural decline in national production rather than a short-term fluctuation.

Forecast points to continued declines through 2027

The longer-term outlook remains negative. The latest Energy Balance Forecast published by the National Strategy and Forecast Commission (CNSP) projects that crude oil production will keep falling through 2027 at an average annual rate of –2.5%.

For 2026, CNSP estimates production at 2.68 million tons of oil equivalent, a decrease of 2.2% versus the previous year. In 2027, output is projected to drop further to 2.63 million tons of oil equivalent (–1.9% year-on-year).

Why output is sliding

CNSP attributes the projected decline mainly to natural depletion of existing oil fields and the ongoing need to maintain aging production infrastructure. The forecast also indicates that limited new capacity is expected to offset falling output.

For investors and energy planners, the combination of weaker early import demand and an extended production downtrend suggests Romania may face continued pressure on domestic supply over the next couple of years—raising the importance of how remaining infrastructure is managed and whether new development can materially change the trajectory after field depletion.