Serbia stands out as South East Europe power prices diverge amid higher demand and stronger import flows

South East Europe’s day-ahead power market is showing clearer fault lines, after Tuesday’s pricing delivered a sharp contrast between Serbia and much of the surrounding region. While demand rose and generation increased on the day, the market still diverged—highlighting how congestion, balancing needs and import dynamics are increasingly shaping prices more than fuel costs.

Day-ahead baseload softens across most hubs

Most regional markets traded lower for baseload power. On Hungary’s HUPX, day-ahead baseload edged down to €103.26/MWh (-1.5 €/MWh). Romania’s OPCOM fell to €84.99/MWh (-8.4 €/MWh), Bulgaria’s IBEX dropped to €76.13/MWh (-4.5 €/MWh), and Greece followed at €75.66/MWh (-4.4 €/MWh). The pattern pointed to broadly softer pricing across the south-eastern zone.

Serbia breaks ranks as fundamentals tighten

Serbia was the main outlier. On SEEPEX, day-ahead baseload jumped to €96.75/MWh (+14.3 €/MWh), the largest increase in the region. Croatia also rose, though more modestly, with CROPEX up to €100.32/MWh (+1.9 €/MWh). Together, the moves widened the gap between Central European-linked markets trading around the €100/MWh area and south-eastern hubs clustered closer to €75–85/MWh.

Demand rises even as renewables add supply

The divergence unfolded alongside firmer underlying load and higher generation levels. Total demand reached 28,328 MW, up 1,058 MW day on day, indicating a solid consumption profile that was not directly driven by weather conditions according to the report. Generation increased to 27,624 MW (+3,014 MW), led by higher hydro and solar output: hydropower rose to 6,252 MW (+1,001 MW) and solar climbed to 5,174 MW (+557 MW).

Even so, stronger renewable production did not fully suppress prices—particularly in tighter markets such as Serbia—where balancing requirements and import constraints appear to have mattered more than incremental supply.

Import flows strengthen but congestion risk remains

Cross-border trading intensified during the session. Total net imports rose to 173 MW (+526 MW), while core inflows from Austria and Slovakia into the region surged to 1,951 MW (+1,242 MW). At the same time, price tension between Western and Central European systems persisted: the Hungary–Germany spread widened to €32.6/MWh (+26 €/MWh). That spread supported higher import flows into South East Europe while also underscoring ongoing exposure to internal transmission bottlenecks.

Renewables drive volatility; gas and carbon offer limited direction

Intraday volatility remained elevated across parts of the region, especially in Hungary where prices ranged from deeply negative levels into strong evening peaks. Day-ahead data showed minimum prices falling as low as -€500/MWh and peak hours exceeding €275/MWh—consistent with oversupply during solar hours followed by tighter conditions later in the day.

The same volatility pattern appeared in Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria, reinforcing that renewable-driven swings are increasingly influencing pricing rather than traditional thermal fuel-cost fundamentals.

On inputs, gas and carbon markets provided limited directional support: Austrian CEGH gas hovered around €46/MWh (+0.9 €/MWh), while EU carbon allowances eased slightly—suggesting marginal power pricing is being driven more by system balance than by input costs.

Flexibility investment points toward a new market structure

The report links these dynamics to a structural shift in South East Europe’s power markets: intermittent generation combined with cross-border congestion and balancing needs is overtaking older thermal price-setting mechanisms.

This shift is supported by continued investment in flexibility assets across the region, including new battery storage capacity in Hungary and a 52 MW storage project acquisition in Romania—moves aimed at capturing value from volatility rather than relying solely on baseload generation economics.

Outlook: continued dispersion expected

Looking ahead, price dispersion is expected to persist as renewable output and cross-border flows remain key drivers. Markets described as structurally tighter—such as Serbia and Croatia—may continue trading at a premium during periods when imports are constrained or demand runs higher.