SEE daily trading analysis: 29 April 2026 prices reset higher as imports and demand tighten the balance

Day-ahead electricity prices across South-east Europe (SEE) moved higher on 29 April 2026 in a clear “balance-driven” repricing rather than a fuel-cost surge. The reset was supported by colder weather and stronger regional demand, but it was the combination of weaker renewable generation and a jump in net imports that tightened the SEE-Hungary supply picture—pushing several markets well above their earlier levels.

Prices rise across SEE as RES output falls and imports surge

The HUPX benchmark settled at €112.66/MWh, up €9.4/MWh day on day. Romania climbed to €110.89/MWh, Bulgaria to €101.50/MWh, Serbia to €107.06/MWh, Croatia to €109.76/MWh and Slovenia to €108.93/MWh. North Macedonia remained the regional low at €74.54/MWh, while Italy stayed the premium market at €115.80/MWh.

Consumption increased to 29,312 MW, up 1,234 MW versus the previous day. At the same time, total net imports rose to 1,752 MW—an increase of 1,509 MW—signaling that regional shortness required additional supply from outside the perimeter.

Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the HU/SEE perimeter increased to 3,336 MW, reinforcing that Central European supply was again needed to cover tighter conditions in SEE. Renewable generation also weakened materially: solar output fell by 1,424 MW and wind by 243 MW, removing lower-cost midday supply and lifting pricing across the daily curve.

Spread signals point to tighter conditions versus Germany

The spread structure reflected the tightening. The HU-DE spot spread widened to €47.31/MWh (up €14.7/MWh), indicating that Hungary and SEE were priced materially above Germany. By contrast, the HU-GR spread narrowed to €15.65/MWh, suggesting Greece was closer to the regional price stack but still below HUPX.

This pattern implied that import incentives were strongest from the northwest into Hungary/SEE rather than from southern markets where prices were comparatively lower.

Serbia tracks core pricing rather than cheaper Balkan levels

Serbia traded broadly in line with the regional core rather than following the lower Balkan fringe. SEEPEX settled at €107.06/MWh (up €10.3/MWh), leaving Serbia about €5.60/MWh below HUPX but above Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.

The relative positioning suggests Serbia was pulled more by Hungary–Croatia–Slovenia pricing dynamics than by cheaper southern markets.

Intraday volatility highlights an April-style evening scarcity premium

Trading during the day remained highly volatile on 29 April. HUPX showed a deep midday trough with the daily minimum around hour 15 and then a strong evening ramp; the maximum occurred around hour 21.

The profile matches an established April pattern: solar depresses midday pricing when output is highest, but once solar fades residual demand together with import-driven constraints can produce steep evening scarcity premiums—an effect now central to near-term trading risk.

Forward indicators mixed; thermal costs not sole driver

Forward market signals were mixed rather than uniformly supportive of a fuel-led rally. CEGH gas stayed around €46.05/MWh and Greek gas eased slightly to €45.9/MWh; EUA moved marginally higher to €75.11/t.

Hungarian forward power showed week-19 at €99.50/MWh and week-20 at €91.00/MWh; May-26 traded at €93.50/MWh and Cal-26 at €111.50/MWh. Coal forwards remained around $104.5–114.5/t, keeping thermal marginal costs firm but not pointing on its own to an explanation for spot price strength.

Trading takeaway: balance tightness drove repricing

The conclusion for traders is straightforward: 29 April was not primarily a fuel-cost rally but a balance-driven repricing tied to colder weather, higher demand, weaker RES output and sharply higher imports tightening supply into Hungary/SEE. The result was wider HU-DE spreads and higher pricing across Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania into roughly the €107–111/MWh band—while midday downside remains possible due to solar effects even as the evening ramp becomes the key risk window.