SEE power prices jump after weaker renewables and higher import dependence

Electricity prices across Southeast Europe climbed sharply on Thursday 7/5 as weaker renewable generation and rising import dependence tightened regional supply balances. The sell-off in midday renewables comes at a time when Europe’s peripheral power markets are increasingly exposed to swings in output—an effect investors are now seeing reflected in both spot pricing and the forward curve.

Day-ahead benchmarks firm across most exchanges

Benchmark day-ahead prices rose across nearly all major regional exchanges. Hungary’s HUPX and Romania’s OPCOM both traded near €140/MWh, while Croatia, Slovenia and Albania also posted strong gains. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the region’s lowest-priced market at €114.79/MWh, though prices there still increased by more than 10% day-on-day.

The rally reversed earlier sessions that had been dominated by heavy renewable generation and depressed midday prices. Regional solar production fell by roughly 734 MW from the previous day, while wind generation also weakened, increasing reliance on thermal generation and imports.

Tighter balances lift thermal output and imports

Net electricity imports into the SEE and Hungarian market area surged to 954 MW, compared with a near-balanced position a day earlier. Total regional consumption climbed above 28 GW while generation declined, tightening the system enough to push thermal output higher.

Gas-fired generation rose by more than 100 MW, with coal generation also increasing. Traders said the move underscored how quickly regional markets remain exposed to renewable production swings despite rapid solar and wind expansion.

Spreads versus Germany widen again

Price spreads against Germany widened after several sessions of compression. Hungary traded roughly €4/MWh above Germany, reflecting stronger import demand into Central and Southeast Europe.

Curtailment pressure drives storage investment

The market reaction reflects operational constraints that have emerged alongside fast renewable deployment—particularly where storage capacity and grid flexibility have not kept pace. Greece was highlighted as one of the clearest examples: renewable curtailments jumped 49% year-on-year during the first four months of 2026, while zero or negative pricing hours rose to nearly 240 hours in the first quarter alone.

That imbalance between growing solar output and limited flexibility is accelerating battery storage investment across the Balkans and Central Europe. North Macedonia’s Oslomej solar complex is adding a 50 MW / 200 MWh battery system, while Hungary’s Alteo recently commissioned 70 MW of new storage capacity.

CBAM concerns add uncertainty to trade flows

At the policy level, ministers across the Western Balkans warned that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to distort regional electricity trade flows. Energy ministers from Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo urged Brussels to revise CBAM electricity rules, arguing that it discourages EU buyers from purchasing Balkan power exports, including hydropower.

Montenegro’s state utility EPCG said CBAM-linked market effects reduced export revenues by roughly €13 million in the first quarter despite strong hydrological conditions supporting production.

State intervention risk rises as volatility persists

The pressure is also feeding into wider state intervention in regional energy markets. Serbia said it is considering acquiring a 50% stake in the Plandiste wind project currently owned by oil company NIS—part of broader efforts to strengthen control over strategic energy infrastructure amid heightened volatility in global energy markets.

Forward markets suggest spot tightness may ease

Despite the immediate spot tightness reflected in Thursday’s price surge, forward markets continue to signal expectations that current conditions may prove temporary. Hungarian Cal-26 power contracts eased toward €103/MWh, while regional gas and coal forward prices also softened.

For traders, volatile renewable output combined with curtailment risk and rising evening balancing needs is rapidly reshaping Southeast Europe’s electricity market structure. What was once largely fuel-driven is increasingly becoming a flexibility-driven market—where storage capacity, cross-border transmission access and hydro balancing capability are moving toward center stage in price formation.