Greece solar sector faces mounting strain as curtailments rise and revenues fall

Greece’s solar market is moving from operational stress to financial strain, with smaller developers increasingly struggling as curtailments rise and power-market revenues weaken. The risk for investors is not only lower cash flows but the possibility that more renewable loans could turn non-performing if support measures do not arrive in time.

Capacity growth outpaced demand and storage

The pressure has intensified after rapid expansion of solar capacity. Nearly 1.9 GW of new solar installations entered operation during 2025, while electricity demand showed minimal growth. With energy storage infrastructure still insufficient, the mismatch has contributed to a sharp increase in renewable energy curtailments.

Curtailment levels jump sharply in 2026

Curtailment has accelerated further into 2026. Curtailed renewable generation reached 876.5 GWh in the first four months of the year, up 49% year-on-year. At the same time, wholesale market conditions worsened: hours with zero or negative prices rose to 239.5 in Q1 2026, compared with just 13 hours in the same period a year earlier.

Feed-in premium projects hit hardest

Projects operating under feed-in premium schemes appear particularly exposed. Estimates cited in the report suggest some producers saw revenues fall by as much as 62% in early April, undermining their ability to meet financing obligations. That dynamic raises concern that non-performing renewable energy loans could increase across the sector.

Policy response remains pending

Despite mounting pressure, Greece’s Ministry of Environment and Energy has not yet introduced concrete intervention measures. A mechanism intended to redistribute curtailments remains pending even though it had been previously announced. Discussions are also ongoing about a temporary adjustment of prices, but no final decision has been made.

Consolidation accelerates amid financing stress

As market conditions deteriorate, sector consolidation is gaining momentum. Larger energy companies are increasingly acquiring distressed smaller projects, and some community-owned renewable assets have already changed ownership.

Delayed batteries leave the system less flexible

The challenges are compounded by delays in deploying battery storage systems. Without sufficient flexibility from storage, the power system struggles to absorb rising volumes of renewable generation—an issue that can keep curtailments elevated even as new capacity comes online.

For investors and lenders, Greece’s unfolding solar stress highlights how quickly operational constraints—curtailment and price volatility—can translate into credit risk when policy adjustments and grid-balancing investments lag behind capacity growth.