Serbia retail sales stabilise in February, with real turnover up 4.6% year-on-year

Serbia’s consumer-facing economy showed signs of steadier footing in February 2026, as retail trade returned to moderate growth after a difficult start to the year. For investors and businesses watching demand momentum, the key takeaway is that the improvement was not purely inflation-driven—real turnover increased year-on-year.

Serbia’s retail sector returned to moderate growth in February 2026, signaling a stabilisation in household consumption after a volatile start to the year.

Year-on-year growth holds up as prices don’t explain everything

Data from the Statistical Office show that total retail trade turnover climbed by 4.8% nominally and 4.6% in real terms compared with February 2025. That split matters because it indicates volume expansion alongside price effects.

The same dataset also shows why the recovery should be viewed cautiously: on a month-on-month basis, retail turnover fell versus the 2025 average, by roughly 5.1–5.3% in both real and nominal terms. In other words, households appear to be buying more than last year at this point, but activity remains below where it typically ran across 2025.

A partial rebound after January contraction

The February improvement follows a softer January period when retail activity recorded significant monthly contraction. While February suggests consumer demand is regaining momentum, the pattern described by the data—year-on-year gains paired with weaker performance against the prior-year average—fits better with a normalisation phase rather than a full demand expansion cycle.

This interpretation is reinforced by the headline figure for underlying purchasing power: the 4.6% real increase. By stripping out inflation, it provides a clearer read on how much actual consumption capacity households are translating into spending.

Consumption resilience contrasts with industrial weakness

The strengthening of retail turnover comes alongside weaker signals from industry earlier in 2026, where production has shown stagnation or slight contraction. The divergence points to a two-speed economy: domestic consumption (via retail) appears comparatively steadier, while industrial output faces pressure linked to external demand and energy dynamics.

In that context, retail remains an important stabiliser for Serbia’s GDP structure because private consumption represents a significant share of overall economic activity.

No acceleration trend yet: aligned with last year’s pace

Even with February’s rebound, the broader picture does not suggest Serbia’s retail sector is entering a high-growth phase. For comparison, total retail trade grew by 4.2% in real terms during 2025—placing current performance broadly within medium-term trends rather than clearly exceeding them.

The implication of this alignment is that February’s 4.6% real growth looks more like continuity—steady consumption continuing—than evidence of an abrupt breakout into faster expansion.

Sensitivity ahead: wages, inflation and rates remain decisive

The outlook for Serbia’s retail trade will depend on several variables highlighted by analysts looking at household behaviour:

• Wage growth sustainability
• Inflation trends and purchasing power
• Interest rate environment and credit conditions
• External shocks affecting energy and import prices

The February figures suggest households are relatively resilient but not insulated from macro pressures. Overall, Serbia appears to be moving toward a consumption profile that is stable and gradually recovering, yet still below peak expansion levels—supporting economic activity without necessarily driving strong acceleration.