Europe energy markets firm in May as oil, gas and CO2 futures extend gains amid geopolitical supply risks

European energy-linked derivatives moved higher in the second week of May 2026, with oil, natural gas and CO2 emission allowance futures all ending the period on firmer footing. The common thread across commodities was investor focus on geopolitical and supply-side risk—particularly risks tied to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—alongside tighter fundamentals in European gas storage.

Brent oil rises as geopolitical risk supports a bullish crude backdrop

Brent crude oil futures (Front Month, ICE) posted their weekly minimum settlement price of $104.21/bbl on Monday, May 11. Prices then held consistently above $105/bbl in subsequent sessions, reflecting steady upward pressure. By Friday, May 15, Brent futures reached a weekly maximum settlement price of $109.26/bbl, up 7.9% versus the previous Friday, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

AleaSoft attributed the advance to a mix of geopolitical and supply concerns. The United States’ rejection of Iran’s response to its peace proposal, together with ongoing tensions affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raised fears of potential supply disruptions. Separately, risk of a breakdown in ceasefire expectations further supported bullish sentiment in crude markets.

European gas futures trend up on tight storage and Strait-of-Hormuz worries

In European gas markets, TTF gas futures (ICE, Front Month) recorded a weekly minimum settlement price of €46.23/MWh on Monday, May 11. The contract then followed a steady upward path through the week, reaching a weekly maximum of €50.17/MWh on Friday, May 15.

The Friday level was 14% higher than the previous Friday’s close and marked the highest price since April 8, based on AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data. The report pointed to lack of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations as a key driver, alongside persistent concerns about possible disruptions to supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fundamentals added to the sensitivity: average European gas storage levels remained below 40%, and several countries were still under 25% capacity. With inventories tight by historical standards implied in the report’s figures, traders appeared more responsive to any signals that could threaten supply continuity.

CO2 allowance futures hold firm with intermittent swings around demand expectations

CO2 emission allowance futures (EEX, December 2026 contract) reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €77.17/t on Monday, May 11—the highest level since April 18. Over the rest of the week, prices generally stayed above €75/t but remained below the early-week peak.

The weekly minimum was recorded on May 13 at €75.07/t before prices recovered slightly toward week’s end. By Friday, May 15, CO2 futures settled at €75.62/t, which represented a modest increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week’s final session.

Overall, AleaSoft described CO2 as showing a relatively stable but firm trend during the period. Movements were linked to broader energy market sentiment as well as expectations around industrial demand and fuel switching dynamics.

Taken together, the week’s performance across oil, gas and carbon allowances suggests that European market pricing remained anchored to supply-risk narratives—amplified by constrained gas inventories—while CO2 traded with steadier momentum influenced by industrial outlooks and shifting fuel economics.