Europe power demand edges higher in early May as colder weather and holiday rebound lift consumption

Electricity demand increased across most major European power markets in the week of May 11, reflecting a mix of cooler weather and a return to normal activity after International Workers’ Day. The development matters for traders and grid operators because it signals near-term changes in load that can affect balancing needs, price formation and generation dispatch.

Germany and Italy lead the weekly increase

Demand rose most strongly in Germany and Italy, with increases of 7.3% and 6.6%, respectively, compared with the previous week. Belgium recorded the smallest increase at 1.0%, while France, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Spain posted more moderate gains—ranging from 2.5% in France to 3.5% in Spain.

Temperature declines lift consumption across much of Europe

Average temperatures mostly declined during the same period, supporting higher electricity use. France saw the largest temperature drop at 2.0°C, while Great Britain and Belgium fell by 1.7°C each. On the Iberian Peninsula, temperatures decreased by 1.8°C in Spain and 1.9°C in Portugal.

Germany and Italy were exceptions to the broader cooling trend: temperatures increased slightly by 0.4°C in Germany and 0.9°C in Italy.

Holiday effects fade as business activity returns

The overall rise was also attributed to the rebound from International Workers’ Day on May 1, which had temporarily suppressed consumption in the prior week as activity slowed.

Near-term outlook: mixed direction ahead of Ascension Thursday

Looking forward, forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that demand is expected to increase further during the week of May 11 in France, Spain and Italy. By contrast, declines are projected for Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Portugal.

AleaSoft also expects national holidays to temporarily reduce consumption levels in several markets. Ascension Thursday on May 14 is highlighted as an example that could lower demand in Germany, Belgium and France.