SEE day-ahead power prices jump on rebounding demand and weaker solar output

South East Europe’s day-ahead power market moved higher for delivery on 14 April, with prices pushed up by a combination of stronger demand, weaker solar output and tighter regional supply. The rally mattered not only for local utilities and traders, but also because Hungary continued to set the tone for pricing across neighbouring exchanges.

Hungary leads the regional surge

Hungary’s HUPX recorded the highest settlement in the SEE complex at €144.19/MWh, up €46.2/MWh versus the previous day. Slovenia’s BSP followed at €142.07/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX cleared at €141.76/MWh, and Romania’s OPCOM settled at €139.77/MWh.

Bulgaria’s IBEX and Greece’s HENEX both closed at €132.81/MWh, reflecting broad bullish momentum across Central and Eastern Europe.

Western Balkans lag amid uneven system conditions

While much of the region firmed, Western Balkan markets were comparatively weaker. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €97.85/MWh, Montenegro’s BELEN at €118.87/MWh and North Macedonia’s MEMO at €111.98/MWh.

Albania posted the lowest price in the region at €78.61/MWh. The gap pointed to persistent structural imbalances across SEE—alongside differences in hydropower availability and varying levels of import dependence.

Demand rises as solar falls; wind only partially offsets

The main driver behind the price increase was stronger demand. Regional electricity consumption rose to 30,365 MW, up 3,287 MW from the prior day.

At the same time, solar output declined to 3,779 MW (down 788 MW), tightening supply during peak hours when prices typically react most strongly. Wind generation increased to 1,980 MW but was not enough to fully counteract upward pressure.

Conventional generation fills the gap; imports widen

Hydropower and thermal units stepped in to support system balance: hydro output reached 7,001 MW, coal 4,200 MW, gas 3,112 MW and nuclear 5,841 MW. Total generation rose to 27,574 MW—an indicator of how heavily the system relies on conventional sources when renewable output fluctuates.

Cross-border flows further reinforced tightness in key areas. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region reached 333 MW, up 829 MW day on day. Imports into the Hungarian-Slovenian area jumped to 1,770 MW.

The widening Hungary–Germany spread of €6.11/MWh encouraged imports into Hungary and helped sustain its position as a regional price setter.

Fuel costs and carbon support thermal economics

Western European benchmarks also remained elevated—German day-ahead prices were €138.09/MWh, Austrian prices €141.49/MWh and Italian prices €150.62/MWh—limiting arbitrage opportunities across connected markets.

In fuel and carbon markets, sentiment stayed supportive for thermal generation costs: the CEGH gas benchmark rose to €49.28/MWh and EU carbon allowances (EUA) traded at €72.59/t.

Evening peaks highlight volatility as renewables fade

Intraday pricing showed pronounced evening peaks across exchanges as supply tightened during ramping hours after solar production fell away. Hungary saw intraday highs above €240/MWh, with similar spikes reported in Romania and Slovenia—evidence of ongoing volatility across interconnected SEE markets.

Outlook: demand supported by weather; fundamentals remain tied to flows

Looking ahead, forecasts point to moderately rising temperatures across the region that are expected to sustain demand without materially changing market fundamentals. Price direction is likely to remain closely linked to renewable output swings—particularly solar—cross-border flows and developments in fuel markets.

The latest session underscores how sensitive SEE power pricing remains to changes in renewable generation and load conditions: with Hungary acting as the primary liquidity hub for the wider region even as parts of the Western Balkans trade at structurally different levels.