SEE power prices bounce on stronger demand, but Serbia’s SEEPEX stays a low-cost outlier

Electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary rebounded on 13 April, driven by stronger demand, rising temperatures and tightening cross-border dynamics. The move was broadly positive for day-ahead baseload pricing, but it also exposed a sharper divide inside the region—most notably as Serbia’s SEEPEX traded at the lowest level in Southeast Europe.

Day-ahead baseload rises across most exchanges

Most power exchanges saw significant increases in day-ahead baseload prices. Hungary’s HUPX settled at 97.98 €/MWh, Romania’s OPCOM at 94.91 €/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at 91.75 €/MWh, Greece’s HENEX at 90.06 €/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at 90.11 €/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP at 85.75 €/MWh.

Serbia diverged sharply: SEEPEX cleared at 77.34 €/MWh, making it the lowest-priced market in Southeast Europe. Montenegro’s BELEN also tracked higher levels in line with broader regional movements at 91.26 €/MWh.

The spread between Hungary and Serbia widened to more than 20 €/MWh, creating clear arbitrage opportunities for cross-border traders and strengthening SEEPEX’s relative appeal within the regional trading ecosystem. The gap also underlines how localized supply conditions can overpower regional momentum.

Western Europe remains structurally more expensive

Despite the regional rebound, Western European markets stayed structurally higher priced. Germany traded at 127.30 €/MWh, Austria at 114.33 €/MWh and Italy at 141.86 €/MWh.

This persistent premium continues to shape interconnector flows and supports export incentives from Central and Southeastern Europe toward higher-priced markets when transmission capacity allows.

Demand lifts while renewables influence intraday pricing

Electricity consumption across the SEE and Hungarian area rose to 27,134 MW—up by 2,247 MW versus the previous day—reflecting stronger seasonal demand patterns alongside milder temperatures and improved industrial load factors.

Renewable generation remained a key driver of system dynamics even as demand increased. Solar output surged by more than 1 GW day on day, while hydro continued to provide flexibility. The generation mix cited for the region showed hydro at 26% of supply, nuclear at 24%, solar at 19%, coal at 16% and gas at 12%, with wind contributing a smaller share.

Total regional generation reached 24,767 MW and imports were described as moderate, pointing to balanced system conditions overall.

Cross-border spreads highlight market coupling importance

Cross-border flows continued to play a central role in price formation. Hungary remained a net importer, while Romania, Bulgaria and Greece supported regional supply; Serbia also relied on imports within the broader balance despite its lower price level.

The Hungary–Germany spread stood at -29.32 €/MWh, indicating Hungarian prices were well below German levels—an incentive for west-to-east flows when capacity permits. The report also noted strong commercial activity along corridors linking Hungary with Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Greece, reinforcing Southeast Europe’s position as a bridge between Central European and Mediterranean markets.

Solar-driven volatility shows up in hourly curves

Intraday price curves reflected pronounced volatility tied largely to solar generation. Midday hours saw lower prices as photovoltaic output increased, while evening demand spikes pushed prices higher across major exchanges including HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX.

The pattern points to how renewable expansion is changing trading behavior in the region: market participants increasingly depend on flexible resources such as battery storage, gas-fired generation and cross-border trading to manage intraday imbalances.

Forward markets suggest stability despite spot strength

Forward indicators pointed to relative stability even after the spot rebound. Hungarian power futures were assessed at 108 €/MWh for Week 16, 102 €/MWh for Week 17, 91 €/MWh for May 2026 and 108 €/MWh for Cal-2026.

Fuel signals were also described as subdued: the Austrian CEGH gas benchmark traded at 46.23 €/MWh and EU carbon allowances (EUA) were at 72.84 €/t. Together with downward trends in coal futures and gas prices mentioned in the report, these levels suggest moderate cost pressure for thermal generation—supporting the view that the day-ahead rebound was driven more by short-term fundamentals than structural tightening.

What investors should watch next

The session illustrates a market shaped by seasonal demand recovery, rising renewable penetration and persistent price disparities between Western Europe and Southeast Europe—conditions that can sustain cross-border trading opportunities through arbitrage when transmission capacity allows.

Looking ahead, traders are expected to monitor renewable output levels—especially solar—temperature forecasts and interconnector availability. Particular attention will likely remain on the Hungary–Germany spread and SEEPEX pricing dynamics as indicators of regional liquidity and direction while Southeast Europe deepens integration with broader European power markets.