SEE power prices fall on 17 April as renewables rise and regional imports ease

South East European day-ahead power markets moved sharply lower on Friday, 17 April 2026, with prices trending down across nearly all hubs. The sell-off reflected a rapid improvement in the region’s supply-demand balance—renewables displaced higher-cost generation and reduced import dependence—softening the market even as forward and fuel signals were less bearish.

Central-Eastern hubs converge near €100/MWh

In Hungary, the day-ahead benchmark on HUPX cleared at €99.37/MWh, a steep €28.3/MWh decline day on day. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €99.29/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP finished at €99.80/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX at €99.33/MWh. Together, the results reinforced a tightly coupled Central-Eastern price cluster around the €100/MWh level.

Solar-led divergence in the south

Further south, prices diverged more visibly as solar penetration increased. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell to €85.83/MWh (-€29.3/MWh), Bulgaria’s IBEX dropped to €85.97/MWh (-€18.6/MWh), and Albania’s ALPEX declined to €84.44/MWh (-€13.4/MWh). Greece remained the lowest-priced market at €77.40/MWh, consistent with deeper midday solar-induced price compression.

Montenegro stood out as an exception, clearing at €100.68/MWh and maintaining a premium to regional peers despite the broader downward trend.

Supply-demand shift eliminates net imports

The primary driver was a marked turnaround in regional balance. Total generation rose to 29,714 MW while consumption eased to 29,542 MW, removing the need for net imports and shifting the system into a 585 MW export position—an important change from the previous day’s more import-reliant structure.

Wind and solar displace thermal output

Renewables were central to that shift: wind output increased by 1,261 MW to 3,528 MW and solar generation rose by 399 MW to 4,223 MW, displacing higher-cost thermal generation. Gas-fired output fell by 818 MW to 3,305 MW, indicating a clear merit-order effect, while coal generation edged lower to 4,411 MW.

Hydropower remained a key pillar of supply at 7,146 MW but was slightly down day on day; nuclear generation held stable at 5,815 MW.

Forward markets show limited bearish follow-through

Although spot prices fell sharply, the forward and fuel complex offered only limited confirmation of further downside. European carbon allowances rose to €74.69/t and Austrian hub gas (CEGH) increased marginally to €44.06/MWh.

Hungarian forward power contracts strengthened as well: Week 17 settled at €103.50/MWh, Week 18 at €96.50/MWh, and Cal-26 at €110.00/MWh—highlighting a divergence between softer short-term physical conditions and firmer expectations further out.

Cross-border flows reduce arbitrage incentives

The cross-border picture also supported lower pricing. The Hungary–Germany spread narrowed sharply to -€5.3/MWh (down more than €22/MWh day on day), reducing arbitrage incentives for imports from core European markets.

Meanwhile, imports from Austria and Slovakia into the HU+SEE region fell by 747 MW; total core inflows dropped to 696 MW while overall regional net imports improved by 618 MW.

Intraday pattern stays calm but evening tightness remains possible

Intraday price profiles showed typical spring behavior without extreme stress signals: midday prices fell toward low double-digit levels across major markets. Minimums were recorded at €8.7/MWh in Hungary (€8.6/MWh in Romania) with near-zero levels in Greece.

Peak-hour prices remained elevated but contained for most markets, topping out between €150/MWh and €165/MWh—suggesting that evening ramps persisted but were not tight enough to sustain higher levels seen earlier in the week.

What comes next depends on renewable stability

The trading signal from Friday is that the SEE market has entered a renewables-driven soft phase: incremental increases in wind and solar output quickly compress prices across much of the curve. Central-Eastern convergence around €99–€100/MWh points to strong coupling under balanced conditions, while sharper declines in Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia point to localized daylight oversupply tied to solar swings.

Looking ahead into the weekend, continued downward pressure will depend on whether wind and solar output holds up alongside demand staying around forecast consumption of roughly 29.5 GW with broadly stable temperatures. If renewable generation weakens quickly after midday strength fades, evening tightness could return and push peak-hour prices back toward the embedded €120–160/MWh range reflected in intraday curves.