SEE power prices snap back as demand rises, renewables slip and imports fill the gap

The South-East European (SEE) power market opened the new trading week with a sharp reversal in day-ahead pricing, underscoring how quickly the region reprices when renewable generation weakens and demand holds up. The rebound was broad-based across Balkan markets but was most pronounced in the south and east, where structural tightness continues to shape short-term price formation.

Southern Balkan markets lead the rebound

Day-ahead baseload prices rose to 71.24 €/MWh in Serbia on SEEPEX, making it the region’s most expensive market. Greece followed at 70.35 €/MWh and Albania at 70.29 €/MWh. Montenegro cleared at 64.99 €/MWh, while Bulgaria and Romania moved to 62.08 €/MWh and 60.35 €/MWh respectively.

By contrast, Central Europe remained significantly softer: Hungary was at 47.25 €/MWh, Croatia at 36.04 €/MWh and Slovenia at just 29.16 €/MWh. The pricing pattern highlighted a persistent north–south divergence in how regional fundamentals translate into day-ahead clearing levels.

System tightening shows up in both volumes and spreads

The size of the move reflected a systemic tightening rather than a localized disruption. Greece jumped by +39.2% day on day, Bulgaria by +30.9%, Serbia by +29.5% and Romania by +29.2%. Hungary also increased (+13.0%), but its more moderate rise reinforced its position as a relative price floor within the region.

At the core of the repricing was a deterioration in the regional power balance: total consumption rose to 28,701 MW (+1,377 MW), while total generation fell to 25,292 MW (-2,694 MW). That widened deficit pushed higher import reliance, with total net imports rising to 2,592 MW (+561 MW day on day). Core inflows from Austria and Slovakia reached 3,210 MW (+554 MW).

Renewables weaken while demand recovers

The supply drop came across multiple generation sources at once—wind output declined by 855 MW, solar by 430 MW and hydro by 354 MW. Even thermal generation weakened as coal fell by 253 MW and gas declined by 178 MW.

Renewables were particularly decisive for marginal pricing: forecast solar output dropped to 1,842 MW and wind fell to 3,502 MW. In a market where clearing prices remain sensitive to shifts in marginal supply—especially during shoulder-season transitions—removing low-cost renewable volume translated quickly into higher day-ahead prices.

Serbia’s premium reflects deeper integration during tight periods

Serbia’s position at the top of the regional curve stood out at 71.24 €/MWh—nearly 24 €/MWh above Hungary (47.25 €/MWh). Cross-border flow information cited in the report indicates that Serbia remains deeply integrated into regional balancing: it imports from Hungary and Romania while exporting toward neighboring systems such as Kosovo.

In periods of tighter supply conditions, that balancing role tends to amplify volatility rather than dampen it—consistent with this week’s broad-based price rebound concentrated in southern markets.

Diverging regional spreads persist into forward markets

The spread picture reinforced ongoing segmentation within SEE trading opportunities. The Hungary–Germany spread narrowed to 44.21 €/MWh (down €6/MWh), pointing to some convergence with Western European pricing dynamics. However, the Hungary–Greece spread widened significantly to -23.10 €/MWh, reflecting much tighter conditions in the southern Balkans.

Forward markets showed a more measured response for Hungarian baseload forwards: Week 15 traded at 99.50 €/MWh; Week 16 at 114.50 €/MWh; May-26 at 97.50 €/MWh; and Calendar 2026 at 113.50 €/MWh (as reported). Regional spreads versus Hungary remained elevated in prompt weeks—23 €/MWh for Week 15 and €17.50/MWh for Week 16—before easing for May (€14/MWh) and widening again on the calendar strip (€21/MWh).

Fuel prices largely unchanged; system fundamentals drove the move

The report notes that fuel markets did not provide the primary impulse behind Monday’s day-ahead jump: Austrian gas (CEGH) held steady around €52.06/MWh; Greek gas around €51/MWh; and carbon (EUA Dec-26) around €71.06/t—all broadly unchanged according to the figures provided.

Coal forwards edged slightly higher—to €119/t for May-26 and €124.5/t for Q3-26—but with limited movement across fuels overall, suggesting that this spike was driven predominantly by short-term system conditions rather than structural repricing across broader energy complex benchmarks.

Volatility remains visible inside days—and beyond

Intraday patterns continued to reflect volatility tied to renewable intermittency across key exchanges cited in the report. Hungarian prices stayed negative during off-peak hours, reaching a minimum of -171.6 €/MWh during the week while peak values remained above €180/MWh.

Similar swings between negative lows and high positive levels were observed across Romania, Greece and Slovenia—described as persistent features of regional market structure rather than one-off events.

A fragile balance meets wider European constraints

The broader macro backdrop remains supportive of volatility signals referenced in the report: European gas prices have recently surged above $600 per thousand cubic meters for the first time in over two years amid geopolitical tensions and LNG supply risks.

At the same time, grid constraints are increasingly limiting integration of new renewable capacity across Europe; more than 120 GW of planned projects face connection challenges (as stated). Those network limitations—and cross-border congestion effects they can intensify—feed into SEE price formation where import dependence is already high.

What matters next: wind and solar recovery or further weakness

Against this backdrop, Monday’s rebound should be viewed less as evidence of a sustained bullish shift than as another signal of structural fragility in SEE’s power balance—particularly its dependence on imports alongside vulnerability to fluctuations in renewable output during transitional weather periods.

The coming sessions’ key variable will be how wind and solar perform relative to expectations: any recovery would likely compress spreads and ease prices especially in southern markets; continued weakness combined with stable or rising demand would sustain upward pressure and keep SEE structurally tighter than Central European counterparts.