Strong hydro and higher imports push Southeast Europe day-ahead power prices down on 22 April

Power markets across Southeast Europe moved lower for the 22 April delivery window, with most venues posting double-digit declines as stronger hydro output and rising cross-border imports pushed the regional system into oversupply. For traders and utilities, the drop underscores how quickly spring conditions and tighter regional coupling can reshape short-term price formation.

Most SEE markets see double-digit declines

In Hungary, day-ahead baseload on HUPX settled at €111.37/MWh, down €11.2/MWh from the prior session. Losses were steeper further south: Serbia’s SEEPEX fell to €88.65/MWh (-€25.1), Croatia’s CROPEX to €96.48/MWh (-€13.2), and Slovenia’s BSP to €92.91/MWh (-€15.4). Albania recorded the sharpest decline among the major contracts, with ALPEX clearing at €75.06/MWh, down €39.3.

Romania’s OPCOM was comparatively steady at €116.18/MWh (-€1.3). Greece’s HENEX diverged from the broader regional trend, rising to €114.50/MWh (+€31.4) amid tighter local fundamentals.

Supply rises faster than demand

The bearish move was primarily linked to a surge in available supply across the SEE-Hungary system. Total generation increased by 612 MW day on day, supported by a 530 MW rise in hydro output, alongside higher gas and coal generation. Solar generation declined by 676 MW, which partially offset the overall supply growth—but not enough to prevent oversupply conditions.

Cross-border flows reinforced the pressure on prices. Net imports into the region climbed to 2,419 MW, up 833 MW versus the previous day. Core flows from Central Europe—particularly Austria and Slovakia feeding into Hungary and onward into SEE markets—remained elevated at 3,116 MW.

Coupling improves as spreads narrow

The Hungary–Germany price spread narrowed to €32.7/MWh, down €7/MWh day on day, signalling improved coupling with Central European markets and stronger arbitrage flows into the region.

Demand offered limited support: consumption rose modestly to 31,016 MW (+333 MW) as temperatures edged higher. However, load growth lagged supply expansion, leaving the system structurally long.

Intraday volatility persists despite lower day-ahead levels

Intraday price patterns pointed to continued volatility associated with variable renewable output and cross-border flows. Several markets saw near-zero or negative prices during off-peak hours, while evening peaks remained elevated; hourly prices in Hungary were above €270/MWh.

Fuel costs broadly neutral for this move

Fuel markets did not appear to be a primary driver of the day-ahead declines. Austrian gas hub prices (CEGH) edged up to €43.52/MWh, while carbon prices stayed stable around €75–76/t—suggesting that short-term power price movements were mainly driven by system fundamentals rather than changes in input costs.

The regional market is continuing its seasonal shift toward a spring oversupply phase marked by stronger hydro inflows, greater import dependency and closer integration with Central European price dynamics—factors that are likely to keep downward pressure on day-ahead pricing when demand fails to keep pace with supply.