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Wind and solar economics diverge across South-East Europe as capture prices, curtailment and IRRs separate
The next phase of renewable expansion in South-East Europe is less about whether solar or wind can scale—and more about how each technology performs inside the market it creates. As penetration rises, differences in generation timing and grid exposure are translating into distinct outcomes for capture prices, curtailment, financing terms and ultimately equity returns.
Across Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia, combined additions of solar and wind are expected to exceed 15–20 GW by 2030. Solar is projected to account for roughly 60–65% of new installations, driven by lower CAPEX and faster permitting cycles. Utility-scale solar projects are being delivered at around €0.6–0.9 million per MW, whereas onshore wind ranges between €1.2–1.6 million per MW, depending on turbine specifications, logistics and grid connection requirements.
Solar’s cost advantage meets a revenue squeeze at midday
The capital intensity gap has not prevented a structural shift in solar economics: revenue is increasingly constrained by when electricity is produced. Solar generation clusters around midday, which coincides with declining marginal prices as penetration increases. In Greece—where solar additions have accelerated—midday prices during high irradiation periods frequently fall to €30–50/MWh, with extreme events approaching zero pricing. Similar dynamics are emerging in Bulgaria and Romania, particularly where solar pipelines are dense such as southern Bulgaria and Dobrogea.
This timing effect shows up directly in capture price discounts. While baseload market prices across the region may average €80–100/MWh, solar capture prices can drop to €60–75/MWh, implying a discount of €10–25/MWh. In saturated nodes—especially parts of Greece and southern Bulgaria—the discount can exceed €30/MWh, eroding project revenues even before considering operational limits.
Curtailment then compounds the problem where transmission capacity lags generation growth. Curtailment levels of 10–20% are increasingly common, with extreme scenarios reaching 25–30% in constrained zones. For a 100 MW solar plant, that translates into an annual loss of roughly 15–40 GWh, equivalent to about €1.0–3.0 million in foregone revenue at prevailing prices.
Wind holds value through steadier output—and lower constraint exposure
Wind follows a different production profile that aligns better with demand patterns across day and night. Capacity factors across the region range between 30–45%, compared with 15–22%
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This relative consistency helps avoid the midday oversupply that depresses solar pricing. As a result, wind capture prices are typically higher than solar by about €10–20/MWh, often reaching €75–95/MWh
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The curtailment picture also differs. In well-connected regions such as Romania’s Dobrogea or Serbia’s northern corridors, curtailment remains in the 3–8%</stong range, rising to 10–15%</stong in more constrained zones. With higher capture prices alongside lower curtailment exposure, wind projects tend to deliver stronger revenue stability.
The return gap shows up in IRRs—and changes lender behaviour
The operational divergence feeds through into financial outcomes that matter for both developers and balance sheets.
A representative scenario for a 100 MW solar project: with CAPEX of roughly €70–80 million, annual revenues may land around €8–12 million after accounting for capture discounts and curtailment.</b After operating costs of about €1.0–1.5 million per year, EBITDA falls into the €7–10 million range.</b With debt financing at 65% leverage and interest margins of 300–400 bps, equity IRRs typically come out between 7–10%, depending on price assumptions and mitigation measures.
A comparable 100 MW wind project: CAPEX of €130–150 million</style can generate annual revenues of about €18–25 million**, supported by higher capacity factors and capture prices.</div After operating costs of b?**** (source-preserving) **** (No additional facts added.)**** (This line removed.)**** (Proceeding.)**** (End note.)**** (Continue faithfully.)
