Greece fuel supply chain faces test as Middle East tensions threaten logistics

Rising tensions in the Middle East are prompting fresh scrutiny of Greece’s fuel supply resilience, with industry participants warning that extended disruptions could gradually erode existing safety buffers. While current conditions offer some near-term protection, the margin for error appears limited if geopolitical stress persists.

Limited cushion from stocks and refinery output

Market insiders point to current stock levels and refinery output as a temporary cushion, but note that it is not unlimited. Estimates suggest supply stability can be maintained for roughly two months. After that period, continued disruption—particularly to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—could make fuel procurement and logistics significantly more difficult.

Refining capacity and export dependence

Greece operates four major refineries, including facilities owned by Helleniq Energy and Motor Oil Hellas. Together, they produce petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and heating oil at volumes that exceed domestic demand, with more than half of output typically directed to export markets.

In parallel, strategic reserves remain above the minimum requirement and cover around 90 days of consumption. That provides additional short-term support for overall availability even if external supply conditions deteriorate.

Diversification underway, but costs could rise

To keep operations running, refiners have begun diversifying crude supply sources in response to reduced inflows from Gulf producers. These adjustments are expected to help sustain full-capacity production in the short term.

However, if geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on global oil supply conditions, tightening markets could increase costs and make it harder for Greek refineries to secure enough crude volumes to maintain current output levels.