Oil and gas slide in Europe as geopolitical risk eases; EU carbon allowances rise

Europe’s energy complex ended the third week of April with a clear split: oil and natural gas prices fell as geopolitical risk appeared to cool, while EU carbon allowance futures strengthened. For traders and energy-intensive businesses, the divergence matters because it links commodity price pressure with changes in emissions-cost expectations.

Brent under $100/bbl as bearish factors outweighed inventory support

Brent oil futures (ICE, Front Month) remained below $100 per barrel throughout the week, reflecting high volatility tied to geopolitical developments and inventory signals. The weekly peak came on Thursday, April 16 at $99.39/bbl. Prices then dropped 9.1% the next day.

On Friday, April 17, Brent fell to a weekly low of $90.38/bbl—its lowest level since March 11—and finished 5.1% below the previous week’s close.

Early in the week, oil briefly moved above $99/bbl after failed peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. That push faded quickly as expectations for renewed talks grew and geopolitical signals shifted again. Later, additional downside pressure followed announcements including a truce between Israel and Lebanon and Iran’s decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which improved sentiment around supply.

Declining U.S. crude inventories offered only temporary support before broader bearish forces took control.

European gas prices decline from early-week highs amid demand and weather effects

In the European gas market, TTF gas futures tracked a similar downward path. Prices peaked on Monday, April 13 at €46.41/MWh before declining steadily through the week.

By Friday, April 17, TTF reached €38.77/MWh, an 11% weekly decrease and the lowest level since February 28.

The early-week rise was associated with elevated geopolitical tension—failed negotiations with Iran and a blockade of Iranian ports among the drivers cited in reporting. Sentiment later improved as expectations for renewed diplomacy increased and ceasefire developments emerged between Israel and Lebanon.

Beyond geopolitics, several fundamentals weighed on gas: higher temperatures, weaker LNG demand in Asia, and increased renewable generation in Europe all contributed to softer pricing.

CO₂ allowance futures rise even as energy prices fall

While oil and gas weakened, CO₂ emission allowance futures moved higher. In EEX trading for the December 2026 contract, prices hit a weekly low of €72.61/t on Monday, April 13 before rising above €74/t for the rest of the week.

On Friday, April 17, CO₂ allowances peaked at €77.48/t—up 6.4% versus the previous week—and marked the highest level since February 12, according to AleaSoft.

Taken together, the week highlighted how rapidly shifting geopolitics can move physical energy markets lower even as emissions-related costs trend upward—an outcome that can influence hedging decisions and cost planning across Europe’s power and industrial sectors.