Verisk Maplecroft flags South America as a lower-risk hub for Western critical minerals

Western governments are increasingly treating critical minerals as a strategic supply-chain problem rather than a pure commodities question. In that context, a new assessment by Verisk Maplecroft points to South America as the region where diversification efforts may face fewer political headwinds—an advantage investors and industrial planners will watch closely as processing and refining capacity becomes part of national security planning.

The report says South America is emerging as the safest and most politically viable region for Western countries seeking to reduce reliance on China for technology-critical inputs. It frames the shift against rising US and allied initiatives aimed at securing supply resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty, including efforts tied to lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements.

Those moves include expanded US strategic stockpiles and a 55-country effort to build a preferential critical minerals trade bloc. The underlying goal is straightforward: keep essential materials available when trade routes or policy settings change.

Why the Andean corridor stands out

To reach its conclusions, Verisk Maplecroft evaluated 10 emerging markets using its Resource Nationalism Index and Political Risk Data. The analysis highlights Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru as jurisdictions that combine large mineral reserves with comparatively moderate levels of state intervention and political risk.

The report contrasts that profile with higher-risk jurisdictions globally, naming DR Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania among the most challenging environments. In other words, the study’s central claim is not simply that reserves are abundant in South America—it is that risk appears more evenly distributed across producers.

“What differentiates South America is not just the scale of reserves, but the distribution of risk,” said Jimena Blanco, chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “Producers consistently combine large endowments of tech-critical minerals with manageable levels of resource nationalism and political instability.”

The firm rates the region’s opportunity on a risk-adjusted basis as distinctly favourable. At the same time, it cautions that some minerals will still require engagement with higher-risk jurisdictions—underscoring that diversification does not eliminate geopolitical exposure so much as rebalances it.

Policy momentum from Washington and Brussels

The report also links South America’s perceived stability to ongoing Western government initiatives designed to strengthen long-term supply chains. Among them:

• The US Strategic Minerals Cooperation Framework with DR Congo (launched December 2025)
• The EU-India free trade agreement, partly connected to rare earth ambitions
• US negotiations with Brazil aimed at developing critical mineral processing capabilities, particularly in heavy rare earths

The assessment cites comments by US Assistant Secretary of State Caleb Orr indicating these agreements are intended to bolster supply-chain resilience over time. It also notes an example of deeper collaboration: Serra Verde Group in Brazil has offered the US a stake in its operations as part of a financing deal.

A reminder that “lower risk” isn’t “no risk”

Even where conditions are described as relatively stable—South America is referenced in this context—Verisk Maplecroft says there remains medium-risk exposure across some mineral sectors. The report points out that other producers such as India, DR Congo, and Indonesia pair political volatility with assertive government control.

This combination can raise the likelihood of policy tools including export restrictions, state ownership structures, or local value-addition requirements—mechanisms that can affect how quickly raw materials move through global supply chains.

“Securing tech-critical minerals is no longer just an economic challenge,” Blanco said. “The race will be won not by eliminating risk, but by managing it better than competitors.”

Geopolitical alignment adds another layer for buyers

beyond resource endowments and political stability metrics, Verisk Maplecroft examined countries’ geopolitical alignment, incorporating factors such as UN voting patterns, trade agreements, and security ties. The findings suggest:

• Argentina and the Philippines are close US allies
• Chile, Madagascar, and India show strategic alignment
• Peru and Indonesia remain broadly neutral
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