Hydropower rises in week 13, but uneven water conditions underline regional power-market fragmentation

Hydropower generation across South-East Europe rebounded sharply in calendar week 13, rising by 17.35% (+553.5 GWh). Yet the improvement was unevenly distributed across the region, underscoring how fragmented hydrological conditions can translate into rapidly changing supply balances for power markets.

Türkiye drives the regional increase

Türkiye was the main contributor to the week’s higher output, with hydropower generation up 28.24% (+607.7 GWh). The surge points to either improved reservoir inflows or stronger dispatch from hydro plants, both of which helped lift regional supply.

Strong gains in Croatia and Serbia, declines elsewhere

Croatia and Serbia also recorded large percentage increases—hydropower output rose by 244.26% and 153.98%, respectively. While these moves started from relatively low baselines, they still provided meaningful support to local systems and reduced reliance on thermal generation.

Elsewhere, however, the picture turned down. Greece saw hydropower output fall by 38.67%, while Bulgaria declined by 23.48%. Italy and Romania registered smaller reductions, adding to the overall divergence between neighboring markets.

Localized hydrology creates short-term relief—and long-term uncertainty

The divergence reflects localized drivers such as rainfall patterns and reservoir management strategies. Unlike wind and solar, which are shaped by broader weather systems, hydropower output can vary significantly between countries because it depends on specific river basins and storage levels.

For market participants, the higher hydro generation offered temporary balancing support in systems where hydro can play that role. By displacing higher-cost generation during the week, hydropower contributed to modest price declines observed at the time.

Still, traders cautioned that hydro’s variability limits its reliability as a long-term stabilizing factor: its ability to provide flexibility is highly dependent on seasonal and climatic conditions.

As the region moves into spring and early summer—particularly across the Western Balkans—hydropower is expected to remain an important variable. How much it influences balance will depend on future rainfall patterns and reservoir management decisions.