SEE power and gas markets cool in Week 15 as Easter demand fades, solar output rises and gas prices ease

South East Europe’s power market took a clear breather in Week 15 of 2026, with electricity prices declining markedly as seasonal demand softened over the Orthodox Easter period, solar output increased and natural gas prices fell. The week covering 06–12 April saw synchronized bearish sentiment across most European power hubs, reflecting both calendar effects and shifting fundamentals—an environment that matters for traders and investors because it directly influences near-term margins and hedging needs.

Day-ahead power: double-digit drops across most markets

Day-ahead electricity prices across the SEE region recorded double-digit declines, reversing tighter conditions from the previous week. The largest corrections were seen in Bulgaria (-24.6%), Greece (-23.5%) and Romania (-22.8%), followed by Croatia (-20.3%), Serbia (-19.3%) and Hungary (-18.6%). Türkiye diverged from the regional pattern, posting a significant increase of 28.9%, pointing to localized supply-demand dynamics rather than the broader regional pullback.

Even after the declines, price levels remained structurally elevated in several markets. Italy stayed the most expensive market in Southern Europe at a weekly average of €119.89/MWh, with Hungary at €92.19/MWh and Serbia at €91.35/MWh. Prices in Romania (€88.01/MWh), Bulgaria (€86.02/MWh), Croatia (€85.09/MWh) and Greece (€84.69/MWh) were below €100/MWh, while Türkiye recorded the lowest level at €24.89/MWh.

Demand contraction reflects holiday-driven consumption changes

Regional electricity demand contracted significantly during the week, falling 6.77% week on week. The drop was primarily attributed to reduced industrial and commercial consumption during Orthodox Easter celebrations. Greece led with a 13.9% decline, followed by Serbia (12.9%), Bulgaria (12.6%) and Croatia (17.0%). Larger economies also saw meaningful reductions: Italy fell 9.5% and Romania declined 9.3%, underscoring how calendar-driven slowdowns can quickly reshape wholesale pricing.

Renewables shift generation mix: solar surge offsets wind weakness

On the supply side, renewables reshaped the generation mix in ways that helped push prices lower overall. Total variable renewable generation fell 6.6%, but within that figure wind output dropped sharply by 39.8%, particularly in Greece and Italy, while solar generation surged 41.8%. The solar increase was supported by improved irradiance and longer daylight hours.

Solar gains were especially strong in Türkiye, Greece, Hungary and Italy—consistent with seasonal transition toward summer-like generation patterns rather than a one-off weather event alone.

Hydropower adds support; thermal output retreats

Hydropower output rose 4.8% week on week, providing additional support to supply conditions across the region’s mix of generation sources. Greece and Italy led the recovery, Romania continued to provide stable baseload support, Croatia rebounded from a low base, while Serbia saw a sharp decline in hydro generation.

Thermal generation fell as weaker demand met stronger renewable availability: total thermal output dropped 8.3%, including gas-fired generation down 12.0% and lignite/coal down 3.9%. Reductions were recorded across Greece, Romania, Hungary, Italy and Serbia.

Türkiye again stood out—thermal generation increased there, primarily through higher gas-fired output—reinforcing that its pricing divergence was not simply a mirror image of regional drivers.

Cross-border flows soften as regional balances normalize

Cross-border electricity flows declined by 8.3% during the week as trading patterns adjusted to changing balances between countries. Bulgaria increased exports significantly, while Romania moved from marginal importer status to net exporter territory supported by improved domestic generation.

Italy remained the region’s largest structural importer, continuing to absorb surplus electricity from neighboring markets. Serbia’s position was near-balanced, suggesting normalization of flows relative to earlier periods.

Easing fuel costs feed into power pricing; storage remains below historical averages

Fuel markets reinforced bearish sentiment for power pricing through softer natural gas costs—an important transmission channel because lower gas prices reduce marginal generation costs where gas sets price levels.

Dutch TTF natural gas futures averaged €47.68/MWh during the week, down 6.2% week on week after peaking at €53.25/MWh early in the period before falling to €43.64/MWh later on amid subdued demand and relatively stable supply conditions.

LNG inflows into Greece declined slightly; Italy recorded a notable increase; Croatia saw marginally lower inflows compared with prior levels.

European storage sites entered the summer injection season; however inventory levels remained below historical averages, leaving some structural uncertainty around the broader energy outlook even as short-term prices eased.

Trading activity remains concentrated on major exchanges

Liquidity continued to cluster around major European exchanges within SEE trading volumes for Week 15: Italy led with roughly 19,690 GWh traded during the week, followed by Greece (3,130 GWh), Bulgaria (2,499 GWh), Hungary (2,280 GWh), Romania (1,150 GWh) and Croatia (890 GWh). Serbia recorded substantially less activity at 120 GWh.

Near-term outlook: early signs of price rebound after holiday normalization

The temporary correction seen in Week 15 appears set to face renewed tightening pressures as demand normalizes post-holiday period. Early indications point to higher prices at the start of the following week: day-ahead prices climbed above €125/MWh in several SEE markets—suggesting that once seasonal softness fades, fundamentals can reassert themselves quickly in interconnected European power markets.

Overall, Week 15 reflected a short-lived easing shaped by seasonal demand patterns over Orthodox Easter, strong solar generation alongside weaker wind output, hydropower support and lower natural gas prices feeding into wholesale cost curves; while outcomes remain sensitive to weather conditions and fuel moves—and still exposed to geopolitical risks—the region continues to display structural interdependence with broader European energy markets that sustains both volatility and trading opportunities for market participants.