SEE power prices drift lower in week 13, but geopolitics keeps the downside limited

South-East Europe’s electricity market saw a softer tone in calendar week 13 (23–29 March), with day-ahead baseload prices moving lower across most countries. The key takeaway for investors is that the drop looked more like a repricing of near-term fuel costs than a shift to a fundamentally looser system: underlying conditions still point to tight, volatile pricing.

Measured declines across Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia

Day-ahead baseload prices softened modestly throughout the region. Greece averaged €96.75/MWh, down 3.55% week-on-week, while Bulgaria fell by 2.33%. Serbia posted one of the sharper corrections, dropping to €93.02/MWh (down 4.83%), a move attributed to easing gas input costs alongside a temporary improvement in supply conditions.

Italy remained the structural premium market for Southern Europe even as it declined: prices fell by 7.22% to €138.28/MWh, but stayed well above neighbouring SEE levels.

Gas pullback drives the move—yet remains the marginal price anchor

The primary catalyst for the week’s decline was movement in European gas markets. TTF front-month futures eased during early sessions, sliding from above €56/MWh toward the €52–54/MWh range, which reduced marginal costs for gas-fired generation.

Because gas continues to set marginal prices across much of SEE, even relatively small changes in TTF quickly transmit into electricity pricing—explaining why power moved down when gas did.

Geopolitical risk compresses downside and keeps forwards elevated

Despite the easing in spot power values, participants broadly agreed that downside was capped by persistent geopolitical risk, particularly around developments involving the United States and Iran. While there were intermittent signals suggesting de-escalation, markets continued to price potential supply disruptions—especially those that could affect LNG flows through critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

This has contributed to what traders increasingly describe as a “compressed downside environment.” In practice, prices may ease when short-term fundamentals improve—such as lower gas prices or better renewable output—but corrections tend to be limited in size and duration. Forward curves remain elevated and relatively flat across Q2 delivery periods, reflecting an asymmetry between near-term relief and longer-run support.

Türkiye diverges on demand pressure

Türkiye stood out from the broader regional trend: prices rose by 9.52%, driven by a significant increase in domestic electricity demand. The divergence highlights how local fundamentals—particularly demand-side pressures—can override wider regional drivers in markets with distinct structural characteristics.

Tight pricing corridor persists amid incomplete convergence

At a regional level, most SEE markets continued trading within a €90–120/MWh range—well above historical averages for late March. That points to volatility remaining high while the system operates around a higher equilibrium level than pre-crisis years.

Convergence pressures also persisted across interconnected markets. Although spreads between countries narrowed slightly during the week, full convergence remains constrained by grid bottlenecks, differences in generation mix, and varying import dependency.

A layered market outlook: gas anchored but mediated by flexibility and flows

The overall message from CW13 is that SEE electricity is no longer driven by a single factor. Instead it reflects layered interactions between gas prices, renewable output, hydrological conditions and geopolitical developments. Gas remains an anchor for pricing dynamics, but its impact is increasingly mediated by system flexibility and cross-border flows.

Looking ahead, traders appear positioned for continued volatility rather than clear directional moves: short-term corrections may persist when fundamentals improve, but structural tightness combined with external risk suggests prices will remain supported—particularly during periods of higher demand or reduced renewable generation.