SEE power prices stay elevated in Week 14 as Easter demand drop meets tighter regional supply

South East Europe entered April with two forces pulling in opposite directions—an expected seasonal fall in electricity use around Easter, and a less predictable tightening of regional supply linked to weather volatility, fuel pricing and cross-border balancing constraints. The outcome was not a broad-based correction in line with wider European trends, but a wide and uneven pricing range that continues to set SEE apart within the continent’s power market.

Week 14 snapshot: wide price dispersion across SEE

Week 14 of 2026 (covering 30 March to 5 April) illustrates the divergence clearly. Across Southern Europe, most markets stayed above the €100/MWh threshold even as Western and Central Europe saw a softer overall trend. Within SEE, the spread was unusually large, ranging from €19.32/MWh in Türkiye to €136.15/MWh in Italy. By contrast, core Balkan and Central SEE markets clustered more tightly between €106/MWh and €114/MWh.

This pattern points to a structural reality for investors and market participants: SEE is increasingly behaving like a semi-autonomous pricing zone where local fundamentals can outweigh continental signals. While Iberian markets dropped to €12–€13/MWh—supported by strong renewable generation and lower demand—SEE largely resisted downward pressure during the same period.

Prices rose even as consumption declined

Several countries recorded notable weekly price increases despite the Easter effect on demand. Serbia rose by 21.64%, Greece by 14.36%, Bulgaria by 11.78%, and Romania by 8.49%. The demand side showed a clear contraction across the region: electricity consumption fell by 2.30% week on week, reflecting reduced commercial and industrial activity.

The Easter impact was particularly visible in Bulgaria (-6.81%), Hungary (-6.27%) and Italy (-3.78%), confirming that seasonal demand softness was present across multiple markets.

Supply variability prevented the usual price relief

The key reason prices did not fall in tandem with demand was that supply conditions did not adjust in a way that would typically support lower prices. Variable renewable generation declined by 5.2% week on week, driven mainly by weaker wind output (down 6.2%). The wind-related declines were especially steep in Serbia (-63.4%), Bulgaria (-23.7%) and Romania (-18.2%). With low-cost renewable output reduced at precisely the moment when demand weakened, systems had to rely more heavily on thermal generation.

Hydropower provided only partial relief and its contribution varied sharply by country: hydropower increased by 3.6% week on week overall, with strong gains in Romania (+37.7%) and Croatia (+240.7%) contrasted against declines in Serbia (-25.0%), Bulgaria (-27.4%) and Greece (-27.3%).

Thermal generation dynamics further complicated balancing needs. Total thermal output fell slightly by 1.4%, but the mix shifted meaningfully: coal and lignite generation dropped by 6.8%, while gas-fired generation rose by 3.8%. In Italy, gas-fired output increased by 22.1%; Serbia saw lignite output surge by 55.2%, underscoring that marginal fuel selection remains highly country-specific during tight periods.

Cross-border flows eased—but did not eliminate tightness

Cross-border trading added another layer to the pricing story without fully offsetting local constraints. Total net imports across SEE fell by 11.3% to 1,188.7 GWh, suggesting reduced dependence on external supply at the aggregate level.

However, beneath that headline figure were major shifts: Serbia increased net imports by more than 130%, Greece’s net exports collapsed by nearly 80%, while both Bulgaria and Romania moved away from export positions toward balance or net import status.

The combined effect is a system still highly sensitive to short-term changes in generation availability and interconnection flows—unlike Western Europe, where higher liquidity and more diversified portfolios tend to dampen volatility.

Early Week 15 signs of normalization

Looking ahead into Week 15, early indications suggest some easing of tightness rather than a full reversal of structural behavior. Day-ahead prices on 8 April ranged between €80.41/MWh in Bulgaria and Greece and €97.39/MWh in Serbia, reflecting less pressure than earlier levels.

Even so, this normalization does not change the broader conclusion drawn from Week 14: SEE remains a high-volatility sub-market with premium pricing characteristics inside Europe, where local constraints continue to shape price formation as much as continental fundamentals do.

Gas prices retreat while storage concerns persist

The gas market presented a contrasting narrative during the same period as electricity prices stayed elevated and fragmented across SEE but gas moved decisively lower on short-term factors including easing geopolitical risk premiums and seasonal demand decline.

During Week 14, Dutch TTF gas futures averaged €50.829/MWh—down 6.9% week on week—with prices falling early in the week to a low of €47.51/MWh on 1 April before stabilizing toward month-end transition into April. The one-month forward contract declined further to €44.605/MWh as bearish sentiment persisted into early April.

The correction was driven primarily by reduced geopolitical risk premiums after reports of diplomatic outreach related to the U.S.–Iran conflict eased concerns about potential disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz—an issue that matters for Europe given its growing LNG dependence, including supplies from Qatar.

Easter holiday effects also weighed on industrial gas demand across Western Europe alongside mild weather that limited heating needs.

But structural tightness remains embedded in storage dynamics: European gas storage reached just below 28% of capacity—well below comfortable levels entering refill season—and injection start dates were delayed by about one week because late-season demand temporarily exceeded expectations.

The refill outlook for 2026 is challenging because EU injection-season demand typically ranges between 140 bcm and 145 bcm, requiring substantial inflows to rebuild storage toward around an end-of-season level near 83%. In addition to pipeline gas (90 bcm) plus domestic production (over 20 bcm), last year’s balance included roughly 85 bcm of LNG imports; starting from a lower storage base means higher LNG volumes may be needed again even if short-term price pressure has eased.

LNG availability risks remain tied to potential disruptions through Hormuz or competition from Asian markets if supplies tighten globally.

EU–SEE link tightens amid persistent structural gaps

The relationship between EU-wide energy signals and SEE outcomes is becoming more complex as integration deepens while structural differences persist—an interaction highlighted throughout Week 14.

On electricity markets, divergence remained pronounced: while Western and Central European prices fell broadly due to reduced demand and stronger renewables output, SEE stayed elevated or even increased—suggesting limited transmission of price signals across the grid despite expanding interconnections.

Italy stands out as a central bridge between regions because it is both a major SEE market and an EU pricing hub; it posted the highest average regional price at €136.15/MWh while still acting as a key net importer even as imports declined by 23.6%. Hungary plays an analogous role within Central SEE as an import hub; its reduction in net imports by 38.9% contributed to lower regional cross-border flows but did not prevent elevated surrounding market prices.

The gas market reinforces interconnection through southern LNG entry points in Italy, Greece and Croatia that supply not only domestic systems but also inland SEE countries; variations in LNG inflows at these points directly affect regional gas availability and pricing.

At the same time, structural differences remain significant: SEE is more dependent on hydro and coal than Western Europe, more exposed to weather variability, more sensitive during periods of supply stress—and less liquid overall—factors that help explain higher volatility levels compared with core EU markets.

A semi-autonomous region inside an integrated grid

Taken together, Week 14 shows that SEE is not simply tracking broader European moves but operating within them on its own terms—integrated enough for cross-border links to matter, yet structurally distinct enough for localized constraints to dominate price formation when conditions tighten or renewables underperform.