Europe’s power market cools but stays erratic: Iberia hits record lows as gas eases

For European electricity traders, the fourth week of March delivered a familiar mix of cooling prices and high volatility. Most major markets started the week with elevated daily pricing—especially on Monday, March 23—before easing over subsequent sessions. The sharpest pressure was felt in Iberia, where Spain and Portugal posted historic minimums.

Iberia’s plunge reshapes the weekly picture

Across most analyzed markets, prices moved downward through the week, punctuated by brief rebounds on Thursday and Friday that did not reverse the overall trend. As a result, weekly averages fell across most markets. The main outlier was France, which recorded a 38% increase, while Portugal and Spain delivered the steepest drops, falling by 49% and 50%, respectively.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting data also showed declines elsewhere: from 7.3% in Italy to a much larger fall of 26% in Great Britain. Even so, the continent-wide story was not uniform—different systems traded under different conditions.

Most markets stayed below €90/MWh—except two

During the week as a whole, most European markets kept average prices under €90/MWh. The exceptions were the United Kingdom at €93.54/MWh and Italy at €138.15/MWh. On the low end of the range, Portugal averaged just €17.69/MWh, while Spain averaged €17.78/MWh, making them by far the cheapest weekly performers.

The spread between regions remained wide: Nordic pricing averaged €45.10/MWh, while Germany finished at €88.04/MWh. That range underscores how localized supply-demand dynamics continued to matter even when broader inputs like fuel costs moved in one direction.

Iberian record lows emerge late in March

The most striking element came from day-to-day trading in Iberia. Between March 26 and March 29, daily values dropped to below €10/MWh. On Sunday, March 29, both Spain and Portugal reached a record-low daily average of €0.18/MWh, marking historic minimum levels for each market.

The weekly trough was not confined to Iberia alone. Earlier in the same period, Belgium’s daily average reached its lowest since late October 2025 at €35.03/MWh on March 25, and the Netherlands hit a similar milestone since late October at €42.24/MWh on March 25. Germany’s low was also notable: it recorded its weakest level since early January 2026 at €37.68/MWh on March 25, while Great Britain bottomed out since early January 2026 at €48.12/MWh on March 25.

A stubbornly high Italy contrasted with broad weakness elsewhere

If Iberia represented extreme downside, Italy illustrated persistence on the upside. The Italian market remained consistently high throughout much of the week: daily prices stayed above €110/MWh, and exceeded €135/MWh for most sessions.

Other major markets—including Germany, Belgium, Great Britain, France, and the Netherlands also saw recurring high-price periods above €110/MWh.

The highest daily average of the week occurred in Italy on March 23 at a peak of €165.24/MWh.

Easier gas prices plus stronger renewables drove lower power costs in parts of Europe

The decline across many markets was linked to improving fundamentals early in the week: AleaSoft points to declining gas prices contributing to downward pressure on electricity pricing across Europe.

In Spain, Portugal, and Italy specifically, increased solar and wind generation together with lower electricity demand in the Iberian Peninsula helped reinforce price reductions—ultimately translating into those lowest weekly levels.

Easing may continue into early April—but gas remains decisive

Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting suggests that electricity prices could fall in some markets during early April due to weaker demand conditions. Still, it cautions that ongoing movements in

<AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reports that : gas price movements will continue to play a key role in shaping overall European electricity market trends European electricity markets . AleaSoft notes this interplay as traders prepare for another stretch where fuel costs can quickly shift price expectations even when near-term demand softens.