Oil, TTF gas and EU carbon lift higher in late March as Middle East risk returns

Late March trading across Europe’s energy complex highlighted how quickly sentiment can shift: oil rebounded after early-week relief pressures faded, gas pricing held above key levels despite a midweek trough, and CO2 emission allowance futures continued to firm on sustained demand for carbon risk.

Against this backdrop, the week’s moves were shaped by diplomacy and then by renewed concern over regional instability—an interaction that fed through into Brent oil futures, TTF gas futures, and ultimately emissions pricing.

Brent swings wider before ending the week higher

Brent oil futures on the ICE market showed pronounced volatility during the fourth week of March. Trading began with prices at a low of $99.94/bbl on March 23, before shifting into a largely upward pattern. By Friday, March 27, Brent climbed to a weekly high of $112.57/bbl, up 0.3% versus the previous Friday, and reaching its highest point since July 5, 2022.

The early portion of the week saw downward pressure tied to diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran. As those expectations weakened and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased later in the week, prices moved back up.

TTF gas fluctuates amid optimism then tight supply signals

In TTF gas futures, pricing also moved within a wide range rather than trending smoothly. The contract reached a weekly peak of €56.68/MWh on March 23, then slid to a weekly low of €52.82/MWh on March 25. After that drop, values stabilized and stayed above €54/MWh in subsequent sessions.

The week ended with TTF closing at €54.18/MWh on March 27, which amounted to an 8.6% decrease compared with the previous Friday. The initial decline was linked to optimism around potential peace talks. Later gains were associated with ongoing geopolitical risks alongside persistently tight conditions signaled by low European gas storage levels.

EEX carbon prices rise steadily through March 27 settlement window

Soon after energy price direction emerged, carbon markets tracked it with their own steady climb. On the EEX market, CO2 emission allowance futures followed a mostly upward trajectory throughout the week.

The session minimum was recorded at a weekly low of €69.26/t on March 23. From there, prices increased consistently until reaching a weekly maximum of €71.69/t by March 27</stron g></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong></s trong>…….>>>>>>>>>>> (Note: formatting corrected below.)