SEE power prices cool on weaker demand and sharply lower imports, but evening tightness persists

South East Europe’s power market retreated on 16 April 2026 as physical conditions moved closer to balance, cooling day-ahead pricing after the previous session’s spike. The key driver was not a collapse in demand, but a sharp reduction in net system imports alongside a steep fall in solar generation—factors that removed the import support behind the prior day’s strength.

Day-ahead benchmark prices: broad declines across the region

Most markets moved lower in an orderly regional reset. Hungary cleared at €127.65/MWh, Romania at €121.10/MWh, Serbia at €115.16/MWh, Croatia at €115.07/MWh, Slovenia at €113.75/MWh, North Macedonia at €113.84/MWh, Montenegro at €109.16/MWh, Bulgaria at €104.53/MWh, Albania at €97.89/MWh, while Greece was cheapest at €91.60/MWh.

Compared with 15 April, the largest day-on-day drops were in Albania (-€48.6/MWh) and Greece (-€34.3/MWh). Hungary fell by €13/MWh and Romania by €13.9/MWh.

Balance shift explains why prices fell without fully breaking down

The underlying physical picture points to a market that eased toward balance rather than one that became structurally oversupplied. Total SEE consumption averaged 30,184 MW on the day, down 282 MW versus 15 April. Total generation fell more sharply to an average of 29,052 MW, down 1,048 MW.

The headline swing came from cross-border flows: net imports dropped from 1,414 MW on 15 April to just 49 MW on 16 April—a contraction of 1,462 MW. Core imports into the HU-linked area also declined materially to 1,507 MW (down 1,109 MW). This combination helps explain why prices cooled: demand softened only modestly, but the import dependency that had supported the previous session largely disappeared.

Spring shoulder mix: hydro and thermal held up as solar slipped

Generation reflected a typical spring shoulder pattern rather than a single bearish renewable surge within the day itself. Hydro rose to 7,434 MW and coal to 4,659 MW; gas increased to 4,124 MW and wind reached 2,247 MW. Solar fell to 3,487 MW after dropping by 812 MW day on day. Nuclear remained effectively flat at 5,825 MW.

With firmer hydro and thermal output offsetting part of the lost solar support from the prior day, prices eased across the region but mostly stayed within an elevated €90–128/MWh band instead of resetting toward weekend-style lows.

Hungary remains firm: spreads narrow but stay wide

Hungary continued to price above its regional peers despite the correction. The HU-DE day-ahead spread narrowed to €16.96/MWh (down €6.2/MWh), but remained wide enough for Hungary to lead the regional stack.

Forward indications also suggest relative firmness versus Germany: implied HU-DE spreads were €18.5/MWh for Week 17, €16/MWh for Week 18, €16/MWh for May-26 and €20/MWh for Cal-26—signaling that Hungary is still viewed as structurally tighter even after daily declines.

Intraday profile: midday softening versus evening stress

The intraday shape remained dominated by evening peak conditions across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX as well as the wider SEE group. Most markets recorded daily highs around hours 20–22 while midday pricing softened with solar present (even though it was lower than on 15 April).

Hungary’s profile ranged from a maximum of €278.0/MWh to a minimum of €50.2/MWh; Romania printed a maximum of €220.4/MWh and a minimum of €50.4/MWh; Serbia ranged from €171.0/MWh down to €67.6/MWh; and Greece reached a maximum of €165.7/MWh with a minimum of €0.0/MWh.

This spread between cheaper solar hours and expensive evening hours remains central to how traders priced commercial risk on the day.

Western Balkans coupling and cross-border flows reinforce regional structure

Serbia and Montenegro stayed closely coupled to continental patterns rather than tracking Greece’s softer pricing tone more directly. SEEPEX at €115.16/MWh and BELEN at €109.16/MWh both fell meaningfully day on day but did not break out of the regional mid-pack.

The cross-border flow data supports that view of continued structural differentiation within SEE: Romania was the strongest net exporter at roughly 1,041 MW average; Greece about 1,215 MW; Bulgaria around 1,041 MW; while Croatia (-616 MW), Serbia (-338 MW) and Hungary (-798 MW) were net importers on the day.

This keeps Serbia in its familiar role as an inland market that benefits from regional softness without fully converging toward the cheapest southern nodes.

Milder commodity backdrop adds support for easing—but not full relief

A mildly softer commodity environment also helped cap upside momentum in power prices during trading hours that followed last session’s spike. CEGH gas was quoted at €43.93/MWh (down €2.2/MWh), while the Greece gas marker stood at €47.69/MWh (down €1.9/MWh). EUA emissions allowances were lower at €74.15/t (down €0.7/t), and coal forwards eased as well—$103/t for May-26 and $110.5/t for Q3-26.

Correction rather than regime change

The trading read for 16 April is that prices corrected sharply from 15 April without signaling a fundamental loosening of market conditions across South East Europe overall. The system still values evening thermal support through its intraday shape; Hungary remains firm relative to Germany; and residual thermal dependence prevents a full spring collapse scenario.

The near-term variables remain tied to whether solar rebounds after its -812 MW decline on the day and whether hydro continues compensating for variability—alongside how quickly flows revert toward heavier import dependence or stay near balance.